欧盟对华经贸依赖及其对成员国影响的辨析

European Union’s Economic Dependence on China and Its Impacts on Member States

欧盟2019年发布对华政策文件,将中国定义为欧盟的合作伙伴、谈判伙伴、经济竞争者和制度竞争对手。2023年,欧盟又先后提出“去风险”政策及《欧洲经济安全战略》,以防止其对华经济依赖损害欧方韧性和战略自主。通过分析2001—2022年中欧贸易及投资的特点,本研究发现欧盟与中国的经济关系仍然处于不断加强的阶段,尤其是新冠疫情下双边贸易的依赖程度仍在上升。在此基础上,文章从经济增长、就业和债务等方面分析了中国对欧盟经济的影响,认为中欧经济合作的相互依赖关系及双方的经济合作,对欧盟各成员国均有积极意义。

The European Union’s 2019 policy paper on China re-defined China as simultaneously a partner,a competitor,and a systemic rival.In 2023,the EU announced a policy on de-risking from China and launched the European Economic Security Strategy,to prevent its economic dependence on China from jeopardising its resilience and strategic autonomy.After analyzing the characteristics of trade and investment between China and the EU from 2001 to 2022,this research finds that the economic relationship between the two parties has in fact been strengthened and that even during the COVID-19 years,the bilateral dependence in trade was still on a rising trend.Moreover,this quantitative research shows that trade and investment dependencies on China contribute positively to the economic growth,employment and control of national debt of the EU as well as the individual member states,whose degree of economic dependence on China,hence policies on China,is different.