SEM视角下人民币汇率风险影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of RMB Exchange Rate Risk based on the SEM Perspective

基于SEM视角,结合我国宏观经济特征与制度背景,运用Granger检验方法选取影响人民币汇率风险的备选指标,使用探索性因子对影响因素进行KMO和Bartlett检验,采用方差极大法对因子载荷矩阵实行正交旋转,构建汇率风险测度因子分析模型,并用SEM模型绘制出人民币汇率风险影响路径系数图,分析影响人民币汇率风险的主要因素,为人民币汇率风险测度提供科学依据。

With the continuous advancement of China's high-level opening to the outside world,cross-border capital flows will become more frequent,which will significantly increase exchange rate fluctuations,which will have a profound impact on trade and investment.Discussing the influencing factors of RMB exchange rate risk has important theoretical value and practical significance for better managing exchange rate risk and building a higher level of open economic new system.Based on the SEM perspective,this paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting the RMB exchange rate risk based on my country's macroeconomic characteristics and institutional background.First,use the Granger test method to select alternative indicators that affect the RMB exchange rate risk.Second,use exploratory factor analysis to perform KMO and Bartlett tests on the influencing factors,and use the maximum variance method to perform orthogonal rotation on the factor loading matrix to construct a measure of exchange rate risk.Factor analysis model.Thirdly,use the SEM model to draw a diagram of the influence path coefficient of RMB exchange rate risk,and then discuss the main factors affecting RMB exchange rate risk,and provide a scientific basis for the measurement of RMB exchange rate risk.