基于FAHP-EWM组合权重的突水危险性评价研究

Water inrush risk assessment based on FAHP-EWM combined weight

通过统计分析吴堡矿区某井田先期开采地段地质及水文地质资料,确定影响主采煤层底板突水的主控因素,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)和熵权法(EWM)计算各因素的主客观权重,并利用加法合成法、极差最大化法、博弈论法和最小鉴别信息法分别计算组合权重;结合脆弱性指数法,利用GIS的信息融合技术得到研究区的突水脆弱性评价分区,4种评价结果的分区过渡趋势基本一致,但存在部分区域其评级结果不同。采用Spearman等级相关系数对4种突水脆弱性评价结果进行优选,结果表明:基于最小鉴别信息法得到的脆弱性指数等级排序与“合理排序”的相关系数最高;在这4种脆弱性评价结果中,采用最小鉴别信息法组合赋权得到的突水脆弱性评价效果最好。

Through statistical analysis of geological and hydrogeological data of the early mining section of a mine field in Wubao Mining Area,the main control factors affecting the water inrush from the floor of the main mining coal seam were determined.Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)and entropy weight method(EWM)were used to calculate the subjective and objective weights of each factor.The combination weights were calculated by addition synthesis method,range maximization method,game theory method and minimum discriminant information method,respectively.Combined with the vulnerability index method,the information fusion technology of GIS was used to obtain the water inrush vulnerability assessment zoning of the study area.The transition trend of the four evaluation results is basically the same,but there are some areas with different rating results.The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used to optimize the evaluation results of four kinds of water inrush vulnerability.The results showed that the correlation coefficient between the vulnerability index ranking based on the minimum discriminant information method and the“reasonable ranking”was the highest.Therefore,it can be inferred that among the four vulnerability assessment results,the water inrush vulnerability assessment obtained by the combination of the minimum discriminant information method is the best.