美日韩三边合作的强化及其前景

The Strengthening of the U.S.-Japan-ROK Trilateral Cooperation and Its Prospects

韩国尹锡悦政府执政以来,美日韩三边合作趋势不断加强,体现在高层互动频繁、战略协调增强、安全合作不断深化、经济合作日益增强、沟通机制更加健全等方面。美日韩三边合作增强主要缘于日韩国内政治变动、战略研判偏重美国、美国对盟国合作施压力度增大、日韩关系改善、中国与日韩关系弱化等因素的影响。三边合作的强化会导致东北亚地区阵营对抗加剧,中日韩整合动力削弱,朝鲜半岛的安全风险增加,台湾问题面临更大的外部干预压力。美日韩三边合作是美国“亚太北约化”规划的重要一环,但也面临一些难以克服的局限。这预示着美日韩三边合作的发展存在不确定性,其未来更有可能在不同领域形成合作程度不一的三边合作机制而非多边联盟。

Since the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration,the U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation has been continuously strengthened.This is reflected in the frequent high-level interactions,enhanced strategic coordination,deepening security cooperation,increasing economic cooperation,and improved communication mechanisms.The consolidation of trilateral cooperation is mainly due to such factors as domestic political changes in Japan and ROK,strategic leaning towards the United States,increased pressure from the United States for alliance cooperation,the improvement of Japan-ROK relations,and the weakening of China's relations with Japan and ROK.The strengthening of trilateral cooperation will likely lead to heightened bloc confrontation in Northeast Asia,diminished momentum for China-Japan-ROKcoordination,increased security risks on the Korean Peninsula,and greater external pressure of intervention on the Taiwan question.Viewed as an integral part of the United States'“NATO-ization”strategy of the Asia-Pacific region,the U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation faces some insurmountable limitations.This indicates that the development of the U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation is fraught with uncertainties,and is more likely to result in a trilateral cooperation mechanism with varying degrees of cooperation across different fields rather than a multilateral alliance.