增质提量:城镇化推进与迁移人口人力资本

Improving Quality and Increasing Quantity:Urbanization Promotion and Human Capital of Migrant Population

针对现阶段中国人口流动过程中出现的由迁移规模快速增长向素质结构调整转变这一现象,从城镇化推进角度作出解释。首先构建理论模型,阐述城市扩张通过影响迁移摩擦和就业市场技能溢价从而影响迁移人口人力资本投资的作用机制,之后从城乡接合部土地出让视角刻画区县层面的城镇化水平,并匹配CHIP数据展开实证分析。结果显示,随着各地城乡接合部土地出让总量的提高,迁移人口的人力资本水平呈现“U型”变化,迁移摩擦消减和技能溢价先减后增为其主要驱动。研究结论可为进一步理解中国城市迁移人口的现有演变特征以及研判未来变化趋势提供一定帮助。

At present,the pattern of population movements in China shows a transition from the rapid increase of migrant scale to the adjustment of quality structure.The paper tried to explain this phenomenon from the perspective of urbanization promotion.Firstly,the paper constructed a theoretical model to expound the impact and action mechanism of urban expansion on the human capital investment of migrant population by influencing migrant friction and the skill premiums of employment market.Then,the research dispicted the level of county urbanization from the perspective of land sales in urban-rural fringe areas,and made an empirical analysis after matching the data from CHIP.The results showed that,along with the increasing amount of saled lands in urban-rural fringe areas,the human capital level of migrant population presented"U-shaped"changes.Meanwhile,the main drivers here were the weakening of migrant friction,and the tendency of skill premium,decreasing at first and then increasing.The results could provide references for the further understanding of the current evolution characteristics in the process of urban migration in China,as well as the prediction of future trend.