家庭生命周期视角下房价收入比对流动人口定居意愿的影响

Effect of Housing Price-to-Income Ratio on Migrants' Settlement Intention Based on the Perspective of the Family Life Cycle

引入家庭生命周期视角,采用全国流动人口动态监测数据(CMDS)系统考察了房价收入比对流动人口定居意愿的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:(1)房价收入比对流动人口定居意愿有显著的挤出效应,且挤出效应仅存在于形成期和扩张期家庭中,在萎缩期家庭中不显著。采用省级耕地保有量比例作为工具变量、替换样本或变量进行回归,结果依然稳健。(2)调节效应结果显示,收缩城市负向调节了房价收入比对流动人口定居意愿的挤出效应,且在所有家庭生命周期中均显著存在。(3)作用机制结果显示,房价收入比的上涨通过制约流动人口的社会融入而削弱其定居意愿,但此效应仅存在于形成期和扩张期的流动人口家庭。由此提出如下建议:以流动人口需求为导向提供住房等保障,提高定居政策针对性。在城市包括收缩城市,采取积极措施推动城市包容开放、普及民众的文化建设,以促进流动人口融入本地文化,加快流动人口家庭定居。

Based on the perspective of the family life cycle, the effect of housing price-to-income ratio on migrants' settlement intention and its Mechanisms of influence is systematically reviewed by China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS) data. The results show that:(1) The housing price-to-income ratio has a significant crowding-out effect on the migrants' settlement intention,and this effect is only present in forming and expanding families, but not significant in declining families. Using the proportion of provincial arable land holdings as an instrumental variable, replacement sample and variable, the regressions remain robust.(2)The moderating effect shows that Shrinking cities negatively moderate the crowding-out effect of housing price-to-income ratio on migrants' settlement intention, and is significant in all family life cycles.(3) The results of the mechanism shows that the increase in the housing price-to-income ratio reduces the migrants' settlement intention by restricting their social integration, and this mechanism is only present in forming and expanding families,but not significant in declining families. The following suggestions are put forward: provide housing and other guarantees guided by the needs of the migrants, and improve the pertinence of settlement policies. In cities, including shrinking cities, take positive measures such as promoting inclusiveness, openness and popularization of people's cultural construction, promoting the integration of migrants into local culture, and accelerating the settlement of migrants.