基于组合赋权云模型的装配式建筑成本风险评价研究

Research on Cost Risk Assessment of Prefabricated Buildings Based on Combinatorial Weighted Cloud Model

在国家大力推进“智慧建设与建筑产业化协调发展”的大环境下,在工程建设施工中,装配式建筑花费的成本要比普通建筑的成本高得多,成本风险管理评价对成本控制起到重要的作用。论文通过文献研究法和专家打分法,从环境风险、技术风险、经济风险、管理风险4个角度出发,建立具有4个准则层和12个标准层的指标体系。本文将COWA算子和G1法这两种方法结合,组合赋权确定最终指标权重值后,利用云模型,本文新颖之处在于采用MATLAB软件进行编码,利用云贴近度确定该项目的成本风险等级,对装配式建筑成本风险进行评价。以青岛某建筑工程项目为案例,分析发现经济风险处于低风险区域,技术风险、管理风险、环境风险处于较低风险区域,给出相应的对策和建议的侧重点,具有一定的实践意义。为装配式建筑工程研究提供新的视角。

In the context of China's active promotion of“coordinated development of smart construction and building industrialization”, in the process of engineering construction, the cost of prefabricated buildings is much higher than that of general buildings, so how to evaluate their cost risk management is the key to achieve cost control. Through the literature research method and expert scoring method, from the four perspectives of environmental risk, technical risk, economic risk and management risk, 4standard layers and 12 standard layers are established. this paper combines the two methods of COWA operator and G1 method,combines the weighting to determine the final index weight value. The cost risk of prefabricated buildings is evaluated. Taking a construction project in Qingdao as an example, it is found that the economic risk is in the low-risk area, and the technical risk,management risk and environmental risk are in the low-risk area, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given to focus on the situation, which has certain practical significance. Provide a new perspective for prefabricated construction projects.