基于投入-产出统一性框架的中国农业全要素生产率时空变迁

Temporal and spatial changes of China s agricultural total factor productivity based on the framework of input-output unity

为规范地测算我国(不含香港地区、澳门地区、台湾地区)农业全要素生产率,识别区域差异,基于投入-产出统一性框架,厘清土地、劳动、中间投入等投入变量,采用最小离差法估计各省份的农业资本存量,采用更符合我国农业生产实际的SFA-KLH模型测算改革开放以来的农业全要素生产率,分析其增长趋势、源泉与时空分布差异,并对农业全要素生产率进行收敛性分析。结果显示,1978—2020年我国农业全要素生产率增长总体呈现涨跌互现、波动增长的变动趋势,但在2006年后呈现增速放缓的平稳趋势。1978—2020年,我国农业全要素生产率的年均增长率为2.27%,技术进步是其增长源泉。农业全要素生产率表现出区域差异,整体上呈现中部>东部>西部的分布趋势。我国农业全要素生产率整体上不存在绝对收敛,但存在条件收敛,且各省份具有不同的收敛速度。

In order to measure China's(excluding Hongkong region,Macao region,Taiwan region)agricultural total factor productivity in a standard way and identify the regional differences,the input variables of land,labor and intermediate inputs under the framework of input-output unity were clarified,and the agricultural capital stock of provincial-level regions were estimated by using the minimum deviation method.The SFA-KLH model,suitable for China's agricultural production,were introduced to measure the growth of agricultural total factor productivity since the implementation of reform and open policy,and the trend sources,spatial and regional distribution of agricultural total factor productivity from 1978 to 2020 were also discussed.It was found that the China's agricultural total factor productivity showed an overall fluctuating growth trend during 1978-2020.But,after 2006,China's agricultural total factor productivity showed a slowing down and stable growth trend.The average annual growth rate of China's agricultural total factor productivity measured by SFA-KLH was 2.27%,and technical progress was the main growth source.There was spatial difference of agricultural total factor productivity,and the growth of agricultural total factor productivity decreased as central>east>west.On the whole,there was no absolute convergence of agricultural total factor productivity in China,but the conditional convergence did exist,and different provincial-level regions had different convergence rates.