经济规模与经济增长内生动力变动——来自国际经验的证据

Economic Scale and Endogenous Dynamics Changes in Economic Growth——Evidence Based on International Panel Data

本文通过引入经济规模变量构建了经济增长内生动力演变的理论分析框架,分析了经济增长动力的演变机制和路径,并利用国际面板数据实证检验了经济动能转换阶段经济增长的动力因素变动。研究发现,经济发展动能的转换存在一定的演变机制,随着经济规模的扩大,经济增长的动力逐渐由外循环动力向内循环动力转变。其中,出口、政府支出对经济增长的推动作用减弱,而居民消费、私人投资、技术创新、资源配置效率提升等因素对经济增长的拉动作用增强;通货膨胀、汇率变动、人口老龄化等因素对经济增长有明显的负向影响。本文研究结论表明,中等收入国家在经济发展动能转换的阶段应着眼于本国实际,适时调整经济政策保持经济增长内生动力的持续性和稳定性,这是成功跨入高收入国家的关键。

This paper constructs a theoretical framework for the evolution of the endogenous dynamics of economic growth by introducing economic scale variables, analyzes the evolution mechanism and path of economic growth driving forces, and empirically examines the changes in the factors affecting economic growth in the stage of economic driving force conversion by using international panel data. The study finds that there is a certain evolutionary mechanism for the conversion of economic driving forces. With the expansion of the economic scale, the driving forces of economic growth gradually shift from external circulation to domestic circulation. Among them, the driving roles of exports, government expenditures, and tax cuts on economic growth are weakening, while factors such as household consumption, private investment, technological innovation, resource allocation efficiency enhancement and other factors are increasing. Factors such as inflation, exchange rate changes, and population aging have a significant negative impact on economic growth. The findings of this paper suggest that during the transition of economic development drivers, middle-income countries should focus on their own reality and adjust economic policies in a timely manner to maintain the continuity and stability of the endogenous power of domestic circulation, which is key for successfully becoming a high-income country.