基于多源卫星表征的中国秸秆露天燃烧CO_(2)排放特征及驱动因子分析

CO_(2) emission characteristics and driving factors of open crop straw burning in China based on multi-source satellite observation

秸秆露天燃烧排放是中国碳排放的重要贡献源之一,现有研究中对近年来中国秸秆露天燃烧排放演变特征识别及驱动力分析还不足.本研究采用基于Himawari-8、VIIRS、MODIS监测火点融合的方法估算了2016—2020年中国秸秆露天燃烧CO_(2)排放量,并采用灰色关联分析识别其驱动因子.结果表明,2016—2020年中国秸秆露天燃烧CO_(2)排放整体呈下降趋势,尤其在2018年排放大幅下降,对中国秸秆露天焚烧减排影响最大的区域为东北地区.针对不同省份的CO_(2)月排放变化趋势分析发现,黑龙江、吉林等省份表现为双峰型排放结构,有明显的季节性特征;而福建、广东等省份没有无明显的峰值与季节特征.农作物产量、播种面积与秸秆露天焚烧CO_(2)排放之间存在强关联性.在自然、经济因素对各省份秸秆露天焚烧行为的影响方面,上海、北京等发达省份(直辖市)受经济因素影响高,而贵州、内蒙古等省份(自治区)则易受自然条件牵制.

Emissions from open crop straw burning are significant contributors to carbon emissions in China.However,recent studies have lacked comprehensive investigation into the characteristics,evolution,and driving forces behind these emissions.In this study,we fused data from Himawari-8,VIIRS,and MODIS active fires to estimate CO_(2) emissions from open crop straw burning in China between 2016 and 2020.Additionally,we identified the driving factors influencing CO_(2) emissions through gray correlation analysis.Our results reveal an overall decrease in CO_(2) emissions from open crop straw burning in China during the study period,particularly in 2018 when emissions experienced a sharp decline.The Northeast region had the greatest impact on the reduction of open crop straw burning emissions in China.Regarding monthly emission trends,provinces such as Heilongjiang and Jilin exhibited a bimodal emission structure with distinct seasonal characteristics,whereas provinces like Fujian and Guangdong demonstrated consistently stable monthly emissions.Our findings indicate a strong correlation between crop yield,crop sown area,and CO_(2) emissions resulting from open crop straw burning.Moreover,the impact of natural and economic factors on open crop straw burning varied across provinces,developed provinces such as Shanghai and Beijing were heavily influenced by economic factors,whereas provinces like Guizhou and Inner Mongolia were more constrained by natural conditions.