城市产业结构如何影响流动人口的定居意愿——基于结构方程模型的实证研究

How does urban industrial structure impact the settlement intention of the floating population?--An empirical study based on multi-group structural equation modeling

在经济高质量发展的大背景下,产业结构转型升级正在持续进行,如何提高流动人口的定居意愿、实现以人为核心的新型城镇化是学界广泛关注的话题。然而现有针对定居意愿的研究多局限于收入、心理等个人属性,忽略了产业结构等客观因素对定居意愿的制约与塑造。通过多群组结构方程模型,从理论和实证两方面研究了城市产业结构对流动人口定居意愿的路径和机制。研究发现,个人就业质量和心理认同作为中介变量,解释了产业结构对定居意愿所产生的较强的间接影响;流动人口所从事的行业类型在该影响路径中具有显著的调节效应;不同产业的流动人口在定居意愿的影响路径上存在显著差异,第二产业群体更关注就业质量,第三产业群体则近似相同的受到心理认同和就业质量的影响。基于此,本文提出制定差异化的政策,提供符合产业需求的就业机会,增强流动人口心理认同的建设,进而推动当地的城镇化和市民化进程。

Under the background of high-quality economic development, the continuous transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is ongoing.How to improve the willingness to settle of the floating population and realize new urbanization centered on human beings has always been a topic of wide concern in academia.However,existing studies on willingness to settle are mostly limited to personal attributes such as income and psychology,and ignore the constraints and shaping of objective factors such as industrial structure on willingness to settle.Therefore, this paper utilizes multi-cluster structural equation modeling to study the path and mechanism of the impact of industrial structure on the willingness to settle of the floating population from both theoretical and empirical aspects.It is found that the industry structure engaged in by the floating population has a significant moderating effect in this influence pathway,while employment quality and psychological identity play significant mediating roles.The primary industry group pays more attention to emotional identity and social connection,the secondary industry group pays more attention to employment quality,and the tertiary industry group is affected by psychological identity and employment quality in approximately the same way.On this basis,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations to help the government formulate differentiated policies according to the characteristics of the local industrial structure and the characteristics of the migrant population,so as to promote the local urbanization process.