恒定市场份额三层次两极均化模型及其应用——我国对“一带一路”沿线国家农产品出口增长的驱动因素及其贡献率分析

Constant Market Share Three-level Bipolar Homogenization Model and Its Application:Analysis on Driving Factors of China's Agricultural Export Growth to Countries along the “Belt and Road” and Their Contribution Rates

恒定市场份额(CMS)三层次两极均化模型将微观层面的商品价格、数量、种类,中观层面的国别、产业结构,与宏观层面的市场份额和需求规模有机结合起来,系统刻画出口波动的直接因素。基于该模型,本文从总体、动态、区域、产业4个维度逐层解析2002—2021年我国对“一带一路”沿线国家农产品出口增长的驱动因素及其贡献率。结果表明,进口需求效应占据主导地位,需求数量和价格水平增长均有显著贡献,虽然出口竞争力效应总体表现不佳,但是品类竞争力和质量竞争力均小幅改善。“一带一路”倡议提出后,出口竞争力效应显著增长,特别是数量竞争力效应大幅改善。研究还表明,上述效应在不同产业和区域既存在共性特征,也具有一定程度差异性。相对于CMS两层次分解框架,CMS三层次两极均化模型的研究内容更加丰富,经济学含义更加清晰,政策启示更加明确,具有更广泛的应用价值。

The constant market share(CMS) three-level bipolar homogenization model organically combines the micro-level commodity prices, quantities and types, the meso-level country and industrial structure, and the macro-level market share and demand scale, and systematically portrays the direct factors of export fluctuations. Based on this model, this paper analyzes the driving factors of China's agricultural export growth to countries along the “Belt and Road” from 2002 to 2021 and their contribution rates from four dimensions: overall, dynamic, regional and industrial. The results show that the import demand effect has contributed dominantly, both demand quantity and price contribute significantly;though the overall export competitiveness is not high, the type competitiveness and quality competitiveness both improve slightly. After the proposal of Belt and Road Initiative, the effect of export competitiveness has increased significantly;especially the effect of quantitative competitiveness has been greatly improved. The research also shows that the above-mentioned influencing factors have common features in different industries and regions, but also have a certain degree of difference. Therefore, compared with the traditional CMS two-level decomposition framework, the CMS three-level bipolar homogenization model has richer research conclusions, more accurate economic implications, more instructive policy implications and wider application value.