什么因素主导了我国与亚太地区的贸易增长?——一种基于普适引力模型的贸易统计分解方法

Which Factor Dominates the Growth of Trade between China and the Asia-Pacific Region:A Statistical Trade Decomposition Method Based on Universal Gravity Model

本文利用基于普适引力模型得出的贸易增长4因素分解方程,识别了我国对太平洋沿岸18个国家1998—2019年间进出口增长的主要驱动因素及其动态变化。研究发现,我国经济增长是我国对亚太地区进出口的主要驱动因素,在进、出口方向的贡献均超过60%;贸易成本下降对区域贸易增长的贡献有待提升;我国对太平洋沿岸地区的贸易分解结构呈现出一定的区域内同质性。此外,多边阻力项在我国对亚太地区进口增长中起到阻碍作用,表明我国同期还从世界其他地区大量进口产品;而多边阻力项在我国出口增长中的影响相对较小。贸易壁垒对中美贸易的阻碍在2013年之后持续增强,尤其是在我国对美国的出口方向。本文在贸易效应识别和测算领域提供了新的统计分解模型,研究结论为我国未来区域合作提供政策参考。

With the statistical decomposition method of four trade growth factors based on universal gravity equation, the paper identifies the trade growth driving factors of China's imports and exports to 18countries on the Pacific Rim and their dynamic changes in 1998—2019. Main research findings show that China's economic growth is the main driving factor for China's imports and exports to the Asia-Pacific region, contributing over 60% of both import and export;the contribution of the decline in trade costs to the growth of regional trade needs to be improved. The trade decomposition structure between China and the Pacific Rim region presents certain homogeneity. In addition, multilateral resistance terms mainly hinder the growth of China's imports from the region, meaning China imports a large number of products from other regions of the world in this period. And the multilateral resistance has a relatively lesser effect on China's export growth. Trade barriers are increasingly hindering China-US trade after 2013, especially in China's export to US. The paper provides a new statistical decomposition model for the identification of trade growth factors and related measurement, and provide a policy reference for China's future regional cooperation.