“双碳”目标下浙江省道路运输业碳排放预测

Carbon emission prediction of road transport industry in Zhejiang province under the“double carbon”target

为明确浙江省道路运输业的碳排放发展趋势,量化碳减排措施效果,通过分析浙江省道路运输行业车辆(公路客运、公路货运、公共汽车、出租汽车)的能源消耗与运输生产数据,提出单位碳排放强度指标,结合情景分析法构建基于单位碳排放强度的道路运输碳排放预测模型。结果表明,2021年浙江省公路客运、公路货运、公共汽车、出租汽车的单位碳排放强度分别为304.4 kg·(万人·km)^(-1)、383.3 kg·(万t·km)^(-1)、43.4 kg·(102km)^(-1)、12.5 kg·(102km)^(-1);不同情景下碳达峰时间不同,强化低碳情景下道路运输行业预测最早于2028年达峰,峰值为1490.2万t。新能源车推广发展、车辆运输能效提升以及运输结构调整,可有效降低道路运输业碳排放,加快实现道路运输业碳达峰。

In order to study the future trend of carbon emissions from road transportation,quantifying the effectiveness of carbon reduction measures.Based on the energy consumption and transportation data of Zhejiang province,the unit carbon emission intensity was presented,and combined with scenario analysis,the carbon emission prediction model was established.The results show that the unit carbon emission intensity of road passenger transport,road fright transport,buses,and taxis was 304.4 kg·10000 person-km^(-1)、383.3 kg·10000 ton-km^(-1)、43.4 kg·100 km^(-1)、12.5 kg·100 km^(-1)respectively.The time arrive peak of carbon emissions under the three scenarios is different.Under the enhanced low-carbon scenario,the road transport will reach the peak of carbon emission in 2028,with a peak of 14.9 million tons.Carbon emissions from road transportation can be reduced through improvement of energy-saving and emission reduction technologies,vehicle fuel economy and increasing the promotion of new energy vehicles,adjustment of transportation structure.