2010—2021年辽宁省本溪市居民慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡及早死概率趋势分析

Trends in the mortality and premature death probability of chronic respiratory diseases among residents in Benxi City,Liaoning Province,2010-2021

目的分析2010—2021年辽宁省本溪市人群慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡率和早死概率变化趋势,为制定慢性呼吸系统疾病防治措施提供依据。方法死亡数据来自本溪市全人群死因监测系统。采用SPSS 24.0软件统计分析死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率等,采用人口学死亡率差别分解法进行死亡率差别分解分析。不同性别死亡率的比较采用χ2检验,用Joinpoint 4.9.1软件计算率的变化趋势。结果2010—2021年本溪市居民慢性呼吸系统疾病粗死亡率为31.83/10万,标化死亡率为35.87/10万。粗死亡及标化死亡率变化趋势差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。2010—2021年慢阻肺粗死亡率为21.40/10万,标化死亡率为24.76/10万。粗死亡率变化趋势差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),标化死亡率呈下降趋势(APC=-6.34%,P<0.05)。慢性呼吸系统疾病和慢阻肺男性死亡率均高于女性。慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率由2010年的0.78%下降至2021年的0.39%,慢阻肺早死概率由2010年的0.64%下降至2021年的0.25%,变化趋势差异均有统计学意义(APC分别为-6.02%、-8.34%,均P<0.05)。差别分解法结果显示,2010—2021年慢性呼吸系统疾病粗死亡率由22.03/10万上升至28.31/10万,人口因素使其增长,人口贡献率为592.20%;慢阻肺粗死亡率由17.41/10万上升至21.40/10万,人口因素使其增长,人口贡献率为2858.74%。结论2010—2021年本溪市慢性呼吸系统疾病及慢阻肺粗死亡率呈上升趋势,标化死亡率呈下降趋势,早死概率均呈下降趋势。人口老龄化是导致粗死亡率上升而标化死亡率和早死概率下降的主要原因。老年人及男性居民是防治的重点人群。

Objective To analyze the changing trends in the mortality and premature death probability of chronic respiratory diseases(CRD)in Benxi City,Liaoning Province from 2010 to 2021,and to provide a basis for developing CRD prevention and control measures.Methods The death data were collected from the Surveillance System for Death Causes in Benxi City.SPSS 24.0 software was used to statistically analyze the mortality,standardized mortality,premature death probability,etc.Mortality difference dissembling method was employed to perform differential decomposition analysis on the mortality of population.Differences in the mortalities of males and females were compared by usingχ2 test,and Joinpoint 4.9.1 software was applied to calculating the changing trends in the rates.Results From 2010 to 2021,the crude mortality of CRD in the residents in Benxi City was 31.83/100,000,and the standardized mortality 35.87/100,000.Differences in the changing trends in the crude mortality and standardized mortality were not statistically significant(P>0.05).The crude mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)in 2010-2021 was 21.40/100,000,and the standardized mortality 24.76/100,000.Differences in the changing trends in the crude mortality was not statistically significant(P>0.05),and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend(APC=-6.34%,P<0.05).The mortalities of CRD and COPD were both higher in the males than in the females.The probability of premature death from CRD decreased from 0.78%in 2010 to 0.39%in 2021,and the probability of premature death from COPD from 0.64%in 2010 to 0.25%in 2021,with statistically significant differences in both the changing trends(APC=-6.02%,APC=-8.34%,both P<0.05).The analysis results based on the difference dissembling method revealed that the crude mortalities of CRD in 2010-2021 increased from 22.03/100,000 to 28.31/100,000 due to the population factor,with a population contributing rate being 592.20%.The crude mortality of COPD increased from 17.41/100,000 to 21.40/100,000 on account of the population factor,with a population contributing rate of 2,858.74%.Conclusion The crude mortalities of CRD and COPD in Benxi City during 2010-2021 showed upward trends,while the standardized mortality and premature death probability presented decreasing trends.Population aging is the main cause for the increase of crude mortality as well as the decrease of standardized mortality and premature death probability.The elderly and male residents are the key groups for prevention and control.