2015—2019年新疆7个监测点日均气温对居民非意外死亡的影响分析

Impact of average daily temperature on non-accidental deaths of residents at seven monitoring sites in Xinjiang,2015-2019

目的分析评估日均气温对新疆7个国家级死因监测点人群非意外总死亡(A00-R99)人数的影响,为卫生决策提供科学依据。方法收集2015—2019年新疆7个国家级死因监测点非意外总死亡资料及同期气象和空气质量资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM)研究日均气温与非意外死亡人数的影响及滞后效应。结果新疆7个监测点日均气温与居民非意外死亡呈“J”型关系,死亡最低风险温度为17℃。高温当天对居民非意外总死亡的RR值(95%CI)为1.031(1.019~1.043),危害效应达到最大,滞后天数为5 d;在不同年龄、性别层中,高温对女性和≥65岁人群非意外死亡风险的影响较大。低温对总死亡及不同年龄、性别层中均未表现出明显的健康风险及滞后效应。结论高温会造成居民非意外死亡风险增加,早期呈明显急性影响,且存在滞后效应,女性和≥65岁人群为敏感人群。

Objective To analyze and evaluate the effect of average daily temperature on the total number of non-accidental deaths(A00-R99)in the population at seven national cause-of-death monitoring sites in Xinjiang,and to provide a scientific basis for health decision making.Methods We collected the total non-accidental death information and meteorological and air quality data of the seven national cause-of-death monitoring sites in Xinjiang from 2015 to 2019.The influence and lag effect of average daily temperature and non-accidental deaths were studied by using the distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM).Results The average daily temperature of the seven monitoring sites in Xinjiang showed a“J”shaped relationship with the non-accidental deaths of residents,and the lowest risk temperature of death was 17℃.The relative risk value(95%CI)of residents'total non-accidental deaths on high temperature day was 1.031(1.019-1.043),and the harm effect reached the maximum,with a lag being 5 days.Among different ages and gender groups,high temperature had a greater impact on the risk of non-accidental death in women and people aged≥65 years.Hypothermia showed no significant health risk and lagging effect on total deaths and in different ages and sexes.Conclusion High temperature can increase the risk of non-accidental death of residents,with obvious acute effects in the early stage.Moreover,there is a lagging effect,and women and people aged≥65 years are sensitive groups.