行业特定知识转移与分析师预测质量:来自券商机构并购的证据

Industry-specific Knowledge Transfer and the Quality of Analyst Forecasts:Evidence from Brokerage Institutional Mergers and Acquisitions

当前频发的“研报门”事件使得如何提升分析师预测质量成为学术界的热点话题。并购作为券商获取外部知识资源的有效途径,是分析师提高业务水平的重要手段。为此,借助券商机构并购事件构建多时点DID模型,基于知识转移视角探究了行业特定知识对于分析师预测质量的影响。研究结果表明:券商机构并购能够有效改善分析师预测质量,降低分析师预测偏误和预测分歧;且这一改善效应在吸收合并与控股合并的并购事件中更为明显。进一步研究发现,当客户公司地理距离邻近、分析师知识差距较大以及工作年限较短时,并购后分析师预测质量的改善效果越明显。基于知识转移的视角,明晰了分析师预测质量的影响因素与作用机制,对于监管机构制定和完善有关券商并购重组的政策具有重要参考价值。

At present,the frequent occurrence of"research report gate"incidents makes how to improve the quality of analyst forecast a hot topic in the academic circle.As an effective way for brokerage companies to obtain external knowledge resources,merger and acquisition(M&A)is an important means for analysts to improve their business level.To this end,this paper builds a multi-time point DID model with the help of M&A events of brokerage institutions,and explores the impact of industry-specific knowledge on the quality of analysts'forecasts from the perspective of knowledge transfer.The results show that the merger and acquisition of brokerage firms can effectively improve the quality of analysts'forecasts and reduce the bias and divergence of their forecasts;and this improvement effect is more obvious in merger events like absorption mergers and holding mergers.Further research finds that when the geographical distance of the customer company is short,the knowledge gap of the analyst is large,and the working life is short,the improvement effect of the analyst forecast quality after the merger is more obvious.From the perspective of knowledge transfer,this study clarifies the influencing factors and mechanism of analysts'forecast quality,which has important reference value for regulators to formulate and improve the policies related to mergers and acquisitions of brokerage institutions.