数字经济对全球价值链参与稳定性的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Digital Economy on the Stability of Global Value Chains Participation

国际经贸格局的加速演进使得全球价值链(GVC)的稳定性面临巨大挑战。数字经济已成为各国实现高水平融入全球价值链网络的重要依托,并在促进国际资本流动、维持全球价值链稳定性等方面发挥着积极作用。在此背景下,本文构建了测度全球价值链参与稳定性的综合指标,理论分析并实证考察了数字经济对各经济体全球价值链参与稳定性的影响及作用机制。研究发现,数字经济显著提升了各经济体参与全球价值链的稳定性,这一结果在处理内生性问题、更换变量、更换估计方法等稳健性检验后,依然成立。异质性分析表明,数字经济对技术密集型行业较发达、对外贸易依存度较高经济体的全球价值链参与稳定性的促进作用更为显著。机制分析表明,扩大资本形成和改善市场透明度是数字经济影响全球价值链参与稳定性的重要渠道,且后者对于发达经济体的影响效果更为明显。本文的分析有效论证了发展数字经济对于提升全球价值链稳定性的重要意义,为我国及其他经济体保障供应链、价值链的安全稳定提供了一定的参考依据和政策启示。

The accelerated changing pattern of global trade and economy brings considerable challenges to the stability of global value chains(GVC).The digital economy has acted as an essential support for economies to effectively integrate into GVC and played an active role in promoting international capital flow and the stability of GVC participation.In this study,we construct an integrated indicator to measure the stability of GVC participation,then theoretically and empirically test the impact and mechanism of the digital economy on the stability of GVC participation.The result indicates that the digital economy can significantly enhance the stability of GVC participation.This conclusion remains robust after mitigating endogeneity,substituting indicators,and changing estimation methods.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the digital economy has a more significant effect on enhancing the stability of GVC participation in economies with more developed technology-intensive industries and those with higher dependence on foreign trade.Mechanism analysis shows that the digital economy can impact the stability of GVC participation through two key channels:expanding capital and enhancing market transparency,and the latter is found to be more effective for developed economies.This study convincingly illustrates the importance of the digital economy in enhancing the stability of GVCs.It also offers valuable recommendations and policy suggestions for China and other economies to safeguard the security and stability of supply chains and value chains.