环境规制与制造业转型升级耦合协调发展及影响因素研究

Research on the Coupling and Coordinated Development Between Environmental Regulation and Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading and Influencing Factors

本文基于2001—2020年中国30个省(区、市)28个制造行业的面板数据,对环境规制与制造业转型升级耦合协调发展的时空演变及其影响因素进行了深入研究。结果表明:(1)2001—2020年间,中国环境规制与制造业转型升级的耦合协调发展水平总体处于稳步上升状态,但存在明显的空间差异,呈自东向西逐渐下降的趋势;(2)中国30个省(区、市)的环境规制与制造业转型升级耦合协调关系虽然彻底实现了从不适应衰退型到协调发展型的质的飞跃,但大多数省(区、市)的耦合协调发展水平仍有待提高;(3)样本研究期间,技术创新、市场化、政府干预、城镇化和人力资本等因素能显著促进环境规制与制造业转型升级的耦合协调发展,产业结构和贸易开放则对其产生负向影响,而外商直接投资对其没有显著影响;(4)各影响因素对耦合协调度的影响路径存在明显差异。

Based on the panel data of 28 manufacturing industries across 30 regions in China from 2001 to 2020,this paper conducts an in-depth study on the spatio-temporal evolution trend of the coupling and coordinated development between environmental regulation(ER)and manufacturing transformation and upgrading(MTU),and its influencing factors.The results indicate that:(1)The level of coupling and coordinated development between China's ER and MTU has been steadily increasing.However,there are obvious spatial differences,with a gradual downward trend from east to west.(2)Although the coupling and coordination relationship between ER and MTU in China's 30 regions has completely achieved a qualitative leap from the maladjusted recession type to the coordinated development type,the level of coupling and coordinated development in most provinces still needs improvement.(3)Factors such as the level of technological innovation,marketization,government intervention,urbanization,and human capital can significantly promote the coupling and coordinated development between ER and MTU.The industrial structure and trade openness hinder its development,while foreign direct investment has no significant impact on it;(4)There are significant differences in the impact paths of various influencing factors on the coupling coordination degree.