“双碳”目标下生态文明发展差距测度、来源分解及形成机理--基于重大国家战略区域视角的考察

Measurement,Source Decomposition and Formation Mechanism of Eco-civilization Development Gap under the Dual Carbon Goal:Based on the Perspective of Major National Strategies Region

统筹推进重大国家战略区域生态文明发展是实现“双碳”目标的重要抓手。在利用“VHSD-EM”模型评价2010—2021年重大国家战略区域生态文明发展水平的基础上,通过Dagum基尼系数、方差分解和QAP方法探究了生态文明发展差距的来源及其形成机理。结果表明:(1)重大国家战略区域生态文明发展水平均呈波动上升态势,但区域间和区域内的差距均显著,粤港澳水平最高,黄河流域处于较低水平;(2)总体差距的主要空间来源是区域间差距,主要结构来源是绿色低碳转型发展差距;(3)QAP回归显示,从内源视角看,绿色低碳转型发展差距、资源节约集约循环利用差距、国土空间格局优化差距、生态环境保护修复差距以及制度健全保障差距对地区生态文明发展差距的作用强度依次降低;从外源视角看,数字鸿沟、对外开放差距、市场化差距是影响地区生态文明发展差距形成的主要原因。研究可为全面协同提升区域生态文明发展水平提供参考。

Promoting the eco-civilization development in major national strategic regions in an integrated manner is an important means of achieving the goal of carbon peaking and neutrality.On the basis of evaluating the eco-civilization development level of major national strategic regions from 2010 to 2021 using the VHSD-EM model,this paper explores the source of the eco-civilization development gap and its formation mechanism through the Dagum Gini coefficient,the variance decomposition and the QAP method.The results showed that:(1)The eco-civilization development level in the major national strategic regions all showed a fluctuating upward trend,but there were significant inter-and intra-regional gaps,with the highest level of eco-civilization development level in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,while that in the Yellow River Basin was at a low level.(2)The main spatial source of the overall gap is the interregional gap,and the main structural source is the green low-carbon transition development gap.(3)QAP regression showed that from the endogenous perspective,the intensity of the role of the green and low-carbon transformation and development gap,the resource conservation,intensification and recycling gap,the spatial pattern optimisation gap,the ecological environmental protection and restoration gap,and the institutional soundness and guarantee gap in the regional eco-civilization development gap has decreased by an order of magnitude.From the exogenous perspective,the digital divide,the opening-up gap and the marketization gap were the main reasons for influencing the formation of the regional eco-civilization development gap.This research can provide a reference for comprehensive and synergistic enhancement of regional eco-civilization development.