基于GM(1,1)模型的江苏省淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡预测分析

Prediction analysis of the mortality of children under 5 years old based on GM(1,1)model in Huai'an city,Jiangsu province

目的 分析2008年1月1日至2021年12月31日淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡现状,构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测2022—2025年淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡变化趋势。方法 数据来源于江苏省妇幼卫生信息系统监测数据。采用描述流行病学方法综合分析2008-2021年淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡死因并评估失能调整寿命年(DALY)损失,用R3.6.2软件构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测淮安市2022-2025年不同年龄段儿童死亡率和非故意伤害死亡发生率。结果 2008-2021年淮安市共报告5岁以下儿童死亡3 315例,平均死亡率为4.44‰,总体呈下降趋势。5岁以下儿童主要死因为意外窒息、先天性心脏病、早产或低出生体质量、出生窒息、溺水。14年间因5岁以下儿童死亡共损失111 141.98个DALY。GM(1,1)模型结果显示,除了交通意外的模型精确等级结果为3级,其他指标的预测模型拟合效果均较好。2022-2025年预测结果显示,除交通意外死亡率呈逐年上升趋势外,不同年龄段5岁以下死亡和非故意伤害死亡率均呈下降趋势。结论 GM(1,1)对5岁以下儿童死亡预测的拟合效果较好,可以应用于预测。灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测2022-2025年淮安市5岁以下儿童死亡率总体呈下降趋势,政府相关部门应进一步加强儿童早产、先天性心脏病及非故意伤害的防控和救治工作,把5岁以下儿童死亡率控制在更低的水平。

Objective To analyze the status of mortality among children under 5 years old in Huai'an city from January 1,2008 to December 31,2021,and construct a grey GM(1,1)model to predict the mortality trend of children under 5 years old in Huai'an city from 2022 to 2025.Methods Data were obtained from the maternal and child health information system of Jiangsu province.Descrip-tive epidemiological method was used to comprehensively analyze the causes of death and estimate the loss of disability adjusted life years(DALY)among children under 5 years old in Huai'an from 2008 to 2021.The grey GM(1,1)model was constructed to predict the mortality and deaths from unintentional injury among children in different age groups in Huai'an from 2022 to 2025 using R 3.6.2.Re-sults A total of 3315 deaths of children under 5 years old were reported in Huai'an from 2008 to 2021,with an average mortality of 4.44‰,which presented a decreasing trend.The main causes of death among children under 5 years were accidental asphyxia,congeni-tal heart disease,premature birth or low birth weight,birth asphyxia,and drowning.A total of 111141.98 DALYs were lost from deaths of children under 5 years during the 14 years.The results of GM(1,1)model showed that fitting effects of most indicators were accurate,with the exception of traffic accident that presented a grade level of three.The predicting results from 2022-2025 showed that mortality and deaths from unintentional injury of children under 5 years would decrease,while deaths from traffic accidents would increase.Con-clusion The predicting accuracy of mortality among children under 5 years old from the GM(1,1)model is high,and can be used to predict mortality.The mortality rate of children under 5 years in Huai'an shows a decreasing trend from 2022 to 2025.The Chinese gov-ernment should reinforce the prevention,control,and treatment of premature birth,congenital heart disease,and unintentional injuries in children to control the mortality rate of children under 5 years old at a lower level.