中国式农业农村现代化水平测度与影响因素分析

Measurement of the modernization level of Chinese style agriculture and rural areas and analysis of influencing factors

立足2013-2021年全国31个省份面板数据,在构建中国式农业农村现代化水平评价指标体系基础上,利用熵权法测算各省份中国式农业农村现代化水平。进一步采用Dagum基尼系数实证分析不同地区中国式农业农村现代化水平的差异及时空演化规律,并通过地理探测器细致考察经济、生产、人力等因素对中国式农业农村现代化水平影响的时空分异。结果表明:中国式农业农村现代化总体发展水平呈逐年缓慢递增趋势且存在区域异质性,其中东部地区中国式农业农村现代化水平最高,中部地区次之,西部地区最低。中国式农业农村现代化水平在不同地区发展不平衡主要由区域间差异引起。从区域内差异来看,东部地区区域内各省份中国式农业农村现代化水平差异最大,中部地区差异最小;从区域间差异来看,西部-东部中国式农业农村现代化水平的区域间基尼系数最大,中部-西部区域间基尼系数最小。农村人均GDP、政府扶持力度和农村产业现代化是导致中国式农业农村现代化产生分异现象的决定性因素。据此,提出有效完善农业农村现代化系统、多维打造农村新型服务模式和统筹整合农业农村资源建议,以全面驱动中国式农业农村现代化水平持续提升。

Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2021,this study constructs an evaluation index system for the modernization level of Chinese style agriculture and rural areas,and uses the entropy weight method to calculate the modernization level of Chinese style agriculture and rural areas in each province.Furthermore,the Dagum Gini coefficient was used to empirically analyze the differences and spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the modernization level of Chinese style agriculture and rural areas in different regions,and the spatiotemporal differences in the impact of economic,production,human resources and other factors on the modernization level of Chinese style agriculture and rural areas were carefully examined through geographical detectors.The results indicate that the overall development level of Chinese style agricultural and rural modernization is gradually increasing year by year and there is regional heterogeneity,with the highest level of Chinese style agricultural and rural modernization in the eastern region,followed by the central region,and the lowest in the western region.The uneven development of Chinese style agriculture and rural modernization in different re-gions is mainly caused by regional differences.From the perspective of regional differences,the difference in the modernization level of Chinese style agriculture and rural areas among provinces in the eastern region is the largest,while the difference in the central region is the smallest;From the perspective of regional differences,the Gini coefficient of the modernization level of Chinese style agriculture and rural areas between the western and eastern regions is the highest,while the Gini coefficient between the central and western regions is the lowest.The per capita GDP of rural areas,government support,and modernization of rural industries are the decisive factors that lead to the differentiation of Chinese style agricultural and rural modernization.Based on this,suggestions are proposed to effectively improve the agricultural and rural modernization system,create new rural service models in multiple dimensions,and coordinate and integrate agricultural and rural resources,in order to comprehensively drive the continuous improvement of the level of Chinese style agricultural and rural modernization.