环境变化的径流效应研究进展及黄河水源涵养区研究展望

Research progress on runoff effects of environmental changes and prospects for research on the Yellow River water source conservation area

针对变化环境下黄河流域实测径流大幅度锐减,严重影响流域水资源与生态安全的问题,面向黄河生态保护和高质量发展的国家重大战略需求,梳理了变化环境下径流效应研究中亟待解决的关键科学问题与关键技术。以黄河水源涵养区为对象,以环境变化的径流效应和水资源预测为核心,细化了数据集构建、机理解析、模型研发、趋势预估4项具体研究内容与研究方案。预期研究成果将揭示黄河水源涵养区水文-生态过程的互馈耦合机理、创新变化环境下生态水文的模拟和预测技术,科学预测变化环境下流域水安全和生态环境风险趋势,有效支撑流域水资源可持续利用与生态环境保护决策。

The recorded runoff of the Yellow River presented significant decline trend due to environmental change,which has been highly threatening water security and in order to meet the major needs of the national strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin,this paper formulates key scientific issues and key techniques that urgently need to be solved in runoff effects under changing environments.Taking the water source conservation area of the Yellow River Basin as a case study area,with focusing on runoff response to environmental changes and water resources prediction,four future research contents of data set construction,mechanism analysis,model development,and trend prediction are proposed.The expected research achievements will reveal the coupling mechanisms of hydrological-ecological processes in water conservation area,innovate eco-hydrological simulation and prediction technology,predict the trend of water security and eco-environmental risk under changing environment,and provide strong supports to the decision of sustainable water resources utilization and eco-environmental protection in the Yellow River Basin,which will produce remarkable scientific value,huge socioeconomic and ecological benefits.