吉林省生态系统碳储量影响因素分析

Influencing factors of ecosystem carbon storage in Jilin Province

基于1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年吉林省土地利用数据,通过InVEST模型估算1990~2020年吉林省生态系统碳储量,并进一步探究吉林省生态系统碳储量的影响因素及其区域差异.结果表明:1990~2020年吉林省生态系统碳储量呈现先上升后下降的趋势并存在空间正相关性.吉林省生态系统碳储量受到气候、植被等自然因素以及经济发展、城市建设和农业生产等人为因素的影响,年均NDVI和地表人类活动强度是主要的正向和负向影响因素,影响系数分别为1.09和-0.32.吉林省生态系统碳储量受空间因素的影响,忽略空间因素可能会高估气候因素对吉林省生态系统碳储量的影响.年均NDVI和地表人类活动强度均有正向的空间溢出效应,影响系数分别为0.83和0.73.吉林省东、中、西部生态系统碳储量的影响因素存在区域异质性.

Based on land use data from Jilin Province in 1990,2000,2010 and 2020,the InVEST model was used to estimate the ecosystem carbon storage in Jilin Province from 1990 to 2020,and a spatial Durbin model was established to explore the influencing factors of ecosystem carbon storage in Jilin Province and their regional differences.The results show that the trend of ecosystem carbon storage in Jilin Province initially increased and then declined from 1990 to 2020,with significantly positive spatial autocorrelation.The ecosystem carbon storage in Jilin Province is influenced by both natural factors such as climate and vegetation,as well as anthropogenic factors including economic development,urban construction and agriculture.The annual average NDVI and land surface human activity intensity are the most significant positive and the most significant negative impact factors,with influencing coefficients of 1.09 and-0.32,respectively.The ecosystem carbon storage in Jilin Province is affected by spatial factors,and neglecting spatial factors might lead to an overestimation of the impact of climate factors on ecosystem carbon storage in Jilin Province.Considering spatial factors,both the annual average NDVI and land surface human activity intensity exhibit positive spatial spillover effects,with influencing coefficients of 0.83 and 0.73.There exist regional heterogeneity in the main influencing factors of ecosystem carbon storage in the eastern,central and western part of Jilin Province.