资产负债表冲击:表现与修复路径

Balance Sheet Shock: Performance and Repair Path

2023年以来,受地产行业低迷、信心不足与预期偏弱等因素影响,中国实体经济部门资产负债表受到一定冲击,且居民和企业部门更为明显,但现在断言中国陷入资产负债表衰退为时尚早。通过分析中国三部门资产负债表表现,发现影响中国资产负债表修复的三条逻辑主线:多重因素影响下居民行为函数发生变化带来超额储蓄、提前还贷、消费降级等现象;企业经营目标从利润最大化转向“求生存”,导致投融资下滑显著;债务约束下政府部门还本付息压力加大,扩表能力和意愿有限。而房地产的深度调整是这三者资产负债表变化的逻辑交点。最后,本文从短期调控和长期改革两方面提出修复路径与政策建议。

Since 2023,affected by the scar effect of the epidemic,the downturn in the real estate industry,lack of confidence and weak expectations and other factors,the balance sheet of China’s real economy sector has been impacted to a certain extent,and the residents and corporate sectors have felt more obvious,but it is too early to say that China has fallen into a balance sheet recession.This paper analyzes the balance sheet performance of China’s three sectors,puts forward three logical lines affecting the repair of China’s balance sheet.Firstly,influenced by multiple factors,citizens’behavioral function has changed,including excess saving,repaying bank loans ahead of schedule,consumption downgrading.Secondly,enterprises’operational target has changed from profit maximization to seeking survival,resulting in remarkable decrease in investment and financing.Thirdly,under the debt constraint,governmental institutions face greater pressure of repaying capital and interest and their capability and intention to expand balance sheet are limited.The in-depth adjustment of the real-estate sector is the logic intersection point of the three aspects’balance sheet change.Lastly,the paper proposed repair path and policy suggestions from the two aspects of short-term regulation and long-term reform.