货币政策利率传导机制有效性研究——基于利率市场化背景

Research on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism——From the Perspective of Interest Rate Liberalization

我国自2015年以来基本完成了利率市场化改革,利率作为货币政策传导的核心中介变量,正逐步发挥引导资金市场化流转与配置于实体经济的作用。同时,我国正在全面推进数量型货币政策向价格型货币政策转变,利率水平变动与货币政策传导有效性研究具有较强的理论价值与积极的现实意义。通过向量自回归(VAR)模型,选取2015年1月至2022年6月的LPR、CPI以及金融结构等数据,对货币政策利率传导机制有效性进行全面分析,实证研究发现政策利率对银行间货币市场利率传导较为通畅,我国通过货币政策实施,能够较好地通过利率渠道传导至实体经济,支持经济高质量发展。

China has basically completed interest rate liberalization since 2015.As an essential intermediary variable for monetary policy transmission,interest rate is gradually playing the role in channeling monetary fund into marketized circulation and allocating them into real economy.Meanwhile,China is promoting the transformation of quantitative monetary policy to price monetary policy,so the research on interest rate fluctuation and effectiveness of monetary policy transmission has theoretical value and positive realistic significance.Therefore,LPR,CPI and financial structure data from January 2015 to June 2022 are selected by vector autoregression(VAR)model,and then the paper had comprehensive analysis of monetary policy transmission effectiveness.We found that the conduction of policy interest rate is relatively unobstructed to the money market interest rate,and China can effectively transmit through the interest rate channel to the real economy through the monetary policy to stimulate high-quality economic development.