政策融合视角下绿色金融的碳减排效应研究——来自改进合成控制法的证据

A Study on the Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Green Finance from a Policy Convergence Perspective:Evidence from an Improved Synthetic Control Method

囿于碳排放现实压力与国际“碳政治”压力,中国过去实施的一系列气候政策面临新的挑战。绿色金融能在传统气候政策基础上,利用融合政策优势推动经济社会全面绿色低碳转型。在理论层面上,绿色金融在减碳实践中比主流命令控制型与市场型气候政策更具优势,基于2009至2020年地级市面板数据,结合合成控制法思想与惩罚回归方法,选取最具代表性的广州市绿色金融改革创新试验区检验其减碳效应与机制。结果表明:绿色金融有效助推广州市实现了碳减排,且减碳效应稳定扩大,政策红利不断释放。在时间安慰剂、替换Lasso方法、替换信息准则等一系列稳健性检验后,绿色金融具有碳减排效应的结论仍然成立。从作用渠道来看,绿色金融不仅能够优化以煤炭为主的能源结构来降低碳排放,亦能够促进实质性与策略性技术创新以实现碳减排,体现出了绿色金融政策的融合特性。据此,应探索气候政策融合路径,重视绿色金融作为一项气候政策的独特作用;应总结绿色金融试点经验,通过绿色金融政策推动经济社会全面低碳转型;应深化绿色金融实施力度,利用其减碳机制平衡多层次减碳目标。

China's past series of climate policies are facing new challenges due to the carbon emissions realities and the pressures of international"carbon politics".Based on traditional climate policy,green finance can utilize integrated policy advantages to promote a comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society.The study begins by putting forward the theoretical advantages of green finance in carbon reduction practices compared with mainstream command-and-control and market-based climate policies subsequently,based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2020,combining the idea of synthetic control method and penalized regression method,selects the most representative pilot zone of green finance reform and innovation in Guangzhou to test its carbon reduction effect and mechanism.The results show that:Green finance effectively facilitates carbon emission reduction in Guangzhou,with the carbon reduction effect steadily expanding and policy dividends continuously being realized.After a series of robustness tests such as time placebo,replacement of Lasso method,replacement of information criterion,and so on,the conclusion that green finance has carbon emission reduction effect still holds.From the mechanism test,green finance can not only optimize the coal-based energy structure to reduce carbon emissions,but also promote substantive and strategic technological innovation to achieve carbon emission reduction,reflecting the integrated characteristics of green finance policies.Consequently,the integration path of climate policy should be explored and the unique role of green finance as a climate policy should be emphasized;the pilot experience of green finance should be summarized,and the overall low-carbon transformation of the economy and society should be promoted through green finance policy;The implementation of green finance should be deepened,and the carbon reduction mechanism should be employed to balance the multilevel carbon reduction goals.