房价预期对经济波动影响——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

Analyzing the impact of housing price expectations on economic fluctuations:adynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach

从预期视角探究房价预期因素对经济波动的影响,构建包含房价预期的动态随机一般均衡模型,考察了单期和连续的正向房价预期冲击对经济变量的影响,分析了预期冲击下限购和限贷政策的调控效果。研究结果表明:房价单期预期冲击对经济波动产生的影响大于未预期房价冲击,并且居民预期形成越早,或居民房价看涨预期持续时间越长,经济波动会越剧烈;当居民持有看涨预期时,限贷政策在削弱经济波动的同时能遏制房价上涨,而限购政策失效。政府部门应当建立居民房价预期监测体系,将预期管理引入房价调控政策体系,有助于增强我国经济增长的平稳性和持续性。

This study examines the role of housing price expectations on macroeconomic volatility by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates these expectations.The model assesses the effects of both transient and persistent positive housing price expectation shocks on various economic indicators.Additionally,the research analyzes the moderating influence of policy interventions such as purchase and loan restrictions during expectationdriven shocks.Findings indicate that the economic impact of short-term expectation shocks is more pronounced compared to unanticipated housing price fluctuations.Moreover,the earlier the anticipation of housing price increases is formed among residents,or the longer these bullish expectations are held,the more intensified the economic volatility becomes.The analysis reveals that loan restriction policies effectively mitigate housing price surges and dampen economic volatility when bullish expectations are present,whereas purchase restriction policies do not yield the same efficacy.The study suggests that government agencies should implement a monitoring framework for housing price expectations and integrate expectation management into real estate policy systems to foster greater economic stability and continued growth in China.