中国中小企业景气波动及影响因素分析——2018-2023年研究综述

Business climate dynamics and determinants for Chinese SMEs:a 2018-2023 research review

近几年来,中国中小企业受国际经贸摩擦、新冠疫情冲击、全球通胀高企等叠加影响,生产经营景气波动较大。中央和各地政府实施了助企纾困、优化营商环境及“民营经济31条”等一系列政策措施,有力确保中小企业发展景气处于合理运行区间,2023年迎来筑底回升态势。采用企业景气合成指数评价模型,运用统计数据、上市公司数据及调研数据综合测评2018—2023年各年度中国中小企业平均景气指数,划分三个景气区间具体分析景气波动影响因素,并为新阶段持续促进企稳回升、实现高质量发展提出景气对策建议。

Over the past few years,small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) in China experienced significant fluctuations in their business climate.These variations were largely due to a confluence of factors,including international economic and trade disputes,the disruptive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic,and rising global inflation.In response,Chinese central and local authorities enacted various policies,which ranged from relief measures to initiatives designed to refine the business environment,such as the“31 Guidelines on Boosting the Growth of the Private Economy”.These interventions have contributed to a stabilization and nascent recovery trend for SMEs in 2023.Utilizing a composite index to assess business conditions,our study provides a comprehensive analysis of China's SMEs' average business climate index from 2018 to 2023.It employs statistical data,data from publicly traded companies,and survey responses to categorize business conditions into three distinct intervals.This framework facilitates an in-depth examination of factors that have influenced climatic variations.In light of these findings,the study offers strategic recommendations aimed at sustaining the momentum of stabilization and recovery,with the goal of guiding SMEs toward high-quality development in this new phase.