浙江省城镇化与地质灾害耦合协调度分析

Analysis of coupling coordination development between urbanization and geological hazards in Zhejiang Province

为定量化揭示城镇化与地质灾害之间的内在规律,促进城镇化可持续发展,采用TOPSIS法和耦合协调度模型,分析2010~2020年浙江省11个市城镇化与地质灾害综合水平的变化趋势和耦合协调度的时空变化。结果表明:①2010~2020年各市的城镇化综合水平持续提高,差距不断缩小。②各市地质灾害综合水平根据变化趋势可分为波动型、中间波动型、平缓型和倒“S”型4类。前期各市的地质灾害综合水平较低且增长缓慢,2017年所有城市都达到了历年最高水平,之后开始下降并逐渐保持平稳。③大多数地级市的耦合协调度与时间变化呈正相关,在2017年达到峰值,耦合协调度的差距不断缩小。2010~2020年浙江省的耦合协调度发展阶段以勉强协调发展为主,空间格局上浙北最优,浙中其次,浙西南最差。研究结果可为浙江省城镇发展和地质灾害防治工作提供参考。

This research aims to study the intrinsic relationship between urbanization and geological hazards,so as to promote sustainable urban development.The TOPSIS method and the coupling coordination degree model were employed to examine the temporal and spatial changes in the urbanization and geological hazards,as well as the coupling coordination degree,in 11 cities in Zhejiang Province from^(2)010 to 2020.The results indicated:①The comprehensive level of urbanization in each city exhibited a continuous improvement trend throughout the period,and the gaps among the cities were narrowing.②Based on the observed trends,the comprehensive level of geological hazards in each city can be classified into four categories:fluctuating,intermediate fluctuating,gentle,and inverted"S"types.In the early stage,the comprehensive level of geological hazards in various cities was relatively low and the growth was slow.In 2017,all cities reached their highest recorded level,followed by a subsequent decline and eventual stabilization.③The coupling coordination degree of most cities exhibited a positive correlation with temporal changes,reaching its peak in 2017,and the disparities of coupling coordination degree diminished continuously.From^(2)010 to 2020,the development stage of the coupling coordination degree in Zhejiang Province was predominantly characterized by barely coordinated development,with the best spatial pattern observed in northern Zhejiang,followed by central Zhejiang,and the least favorable situation in southwest Zhejiang.The outcomes of this research can serve as a valuable reference for urban development,as well as the prevention and control of geological hazards in Zhejiang Province.