产业智能化、人口老龄化与益贫式增长

Industrial intelligence,ageing population and pro-poor growth

基于世界投入产出(WIOD)数据库与世界银行(WB)数据库,考虑人口老龄化背景下产业智能化如何影响益贫式增长。研究结果表明:人口老龄化对益贫式增长产生显著的抑制作用,而产业智能化对益贫式增长具有显著提升效应。在考虑不同估计方法和指标测算方法后,这一结论依然稳健。其次,异质性分析显示人口老龄化背景下产业智能化对于发达国家、后人口红利时期以及劳动密集型行业的益贫式增长的促进作用更为显著。最后,进一步分析发现老龄化背景下产业智能化主要通过岗位迭代效应与生产率效应机制影响益贫式增长,并通过GAM拟合图分析演变路径。研究结论对于人口老龄化背景下产业智能化转型升级以及促进益贫式增长、实现共同富裕具有重要启示。

In order to narrow the income gap and improve the distribution pattern,China adheres to the fundamental socialist principle of common prosperity,making economic development achievements more beneficial to low-income groups,and significantly improving the domestic income gap.However,due to the disorderly expansion of capital and other reasons in recent years,the Gini coefficient has rebounded,and the trend of income differentiation has not been fundamentally reversed.At the same time,as a new economic model driven by artificial intelligence,industrial intelligence has changed the distribution pattern of various production factors,and will trigger a profound transformation of the production division and income distribution pattern.In particular,the post creativity and production optimization effects in the middle and late stages of intelligent development can improve the relative income level of low-income groups to a certain extent,providing new ideas for alleviating income distribution conflicts in China.While focusing on rapid economic growth,poverty benefiting growth emphasizes more on whether low-and middle-income groups can benefit from growth,in line with China's development goal of narrowing the gap between rich and poor and achieving common prosperity.However,there is little research in the existing literature on the intertwined impact mechanisms of industrial intelligence and population aging on pro-poor growth.Based on the World Input Output(WIOD)database and the World Bank(WB)database,this article examines the impact mechanism of industrial intelligence on poverty benefiting development in the context of aging,providing empirical support for improving income inequality,narrowing the gap between rich and poor,and stabilizing economic growth.The research results show that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on poverty beneficial growth,while industrial intelligence has a significant promotion effect on poverty beneficial growth.After considering different estimation methods and indicator measurement methods,this conclusion remains robust.Secondly,heterogeneity analysis shows that in the context of population aging,industrial intelligence has a more significant role in promoting poverty beneficial growth in developed countries,post demographic dividend periods,and labor intensive industries.Finally,further analysis found that industrial intelligence in the context of aging mainly affects poverty based growth through job iteration effects and productivity effects,and analyzed the evolution path through GAM fitting diagrams.Compared to previous studies,this article theoretically incorporates both industrial intelligence and population aging into the model,and studies the joint effects of both on pro-poor development.This enriches research on the influencing factors of pro-poor development,providing empirical support for countries to improve income inequality,narrow the gap between rich and poor,and stabilize economic growth;In terms of research methods,both Generalized Least Squares(FGLS)regression and Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE)regression are used to verify the robustness of the test results,and heterogeneity testing is conducted based on factors such as different levels of economic development and different demographic dividend periods.The empirical results have higher reliability;In terms of research content,in addition to exploring the intertwined impact of industrial intelligence and population aging on the quality of enterprises'export products,it also in-depth analyzed and verified the impact path of job iteration effect and productivity effect on industrial intelligence,providing empirical support and policy recommendations for poverty beneficial development.The conclusions of this study have important implications for the transformation and upgrading of industrial intelligence in the context of population aging in China and various economies around the world,as well as for promoting poverty beneficial growth and achieving common prosperity.