消费升级、创新效应与城市经济韧性

Consumption Upgrading,Innovation Effect and Urban Economic Resilience

本文在理论分析消费结构影响城市经济韧性的基础上,构建城市经济韧性指标并进行了实证检验。结果表明:消费升级在总体上对城市经济韧性的影响呈现U型关系,但在地区间存在显著差异,东部、西部地区消费升级与城市经济韧性之间呈现显著U型关系,东部地区所有城市均位于“拐点”右侧,加快消费升级有利于提升城市经济韧性,西部地区城市均匀分布于“拐点”两侧,消费升级与城市经济韧性之间没有表现出一致特征,城市之间存在较大差别,而中部地区消费升级与城市经济韧性之间不存在显著的U型关系。进一步研究还发现,城市创新能力提高不仅可以强化消费升级与城市经济韧性之间的U型关系,而且还会导致“拐点”左移。本文的研究结论为在“双循环”新发展格局下从需求端因地制宜增强经济韧性提供了理论和事实依据。

Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of consumption structure on urban economic resilience,this paper constructs an index of urban economic resilience and conducts an empirical test.The results show that the impact of consumption upgrading on urban economic resilience presents a U-shaped relationship,but there are significant differences across regions.In the eastern and western regions,the relationship between consumption upgrading and urban economic resilience is significantly U-shaped:All cities in the eastern region are located on the right side of the"inflection point",indicating that faster consumption upgrading can help enhance urban economic resilience,while cities in the western region are evenly distributed on both sides of the"inflection point",and there is no consistent pattern between consumption upgrading and urban economic resilience between cities.There is no significant U-shaped relationship between consumption upgrading and urban economic resilience in the central region.Further research also finds that improving urban innovation capacity not only strengthens the U-shaped relationship between consumption upgrading and urban economic resilience,but also leads to a left shift in the"inflection point".The research conclusions provide theoretical and factual evidence for enhancing economic resilience from the demand side in the new development pattern of"Dual Circulation".