山洪灾害动态临界雨量分析

Dynamic Critical Rainfall Analysis of Mountain Flood Disasters

以位于山西省不同水文分区的三川河、昕水河和桑干河为例,对综合考虑前期雨量、累积雨量、雨强和雨型分布等因素的动态临界雨量预警指标分析法和山洪灾害预测模型的具体应用进行了分析,根据分析结果,对模型预警精度进行了评估。结果表明,该山洪灾害水文模型在山西典型水文分区具有较好的适用性,三个典型流域率定期及验证期内山洪灾害预测结果的合格率均较高;就理论分析结果来看,该模型在其他地区、流域山洪灾害预测方面具有普遍适用性。

Taking Sanchuan River,Xinshui River and Sanggan River River,which are located in different hydrological subregions of Shanxi province,as an example,this paper analyzes the application of the dynamic critical rainfall warning index analysis method and the mountain flood disaster prediction model,which take into account the factors such as the previous rainfall,the accumulated rainfall,the rainfall intensity and the rainfall pattern distribution,etc.According to the prediction the prediction accuracy of the model is evaluated.The results show that the model has good applicability in typical hydrological regions of Shanxi province,and the qualified rate of prediction results of mountain flood disasters during the regular and validation periods of the three typical river basins is relatively high.According to the result of theoretical analysis,the model has universal applicability in other regions and river basins.