菲利普斯曲线迷失了吗?——基于通胀动态和预期形成机制的分析

Is the Phillips Curve Missing?An Analysis Based on Inflation Dynamics and Expectation Formation Mechanisms

菲利普斯曲线刻画的通货膨胀动态机制是宏观政策分析框架中的核心环节。最近十几年来,菲利普斯曲线所描述的经济周期指标与通胀率之间的相关性减弱,这种变化似乎暗示真实经济周期对通货膨胀影响的弱化甚至消失,菲利普斯曲线出现了迷失现象。然而,对菲利普斯曲线的实证表现进行细致求证、科学甄别其变化特征后却有不同发现。本文将有限理性通胀预期形成机制嵌入具有微观基础的菲利普斯曲线模型,分析通胀动态机制和通胀预期形成机制变化的内在逻辑联系。基于中国2000~2019年样本数据的实证分析表明:菲利普斯曲线刻画的经济周期对通货膨胀的驱动作用在样本区间内保持基本稳定,并未出现迷失现象。同时,2010年后前瞻性通胀预期对通胀驱动作用减弱,反映出微观企业对前瞻性定价方式偏好下降;而居民和专家通胀预期的理性程度减弱,更多锚定于官方通胀目标。进一步基于结构化模型的分析表明,微观企业定价和通胀预期形成机制的变化能够解释通货膨胀与经济周期相关性减弱的表象。

The Phillips curve is a key component in the macroeconomic policy analysis framework.In the past decade,the correlation between real business cycle and inflation described by the Phillips curve has weakened,seemingly suggesting a weakening or even disappearance of the impact of business cycle on inflation,ie.The Phillips curve appears to be missing.However,our empirical analysis on the Phillips curve leads to different findings.This paper incorporates the boundedly rational inflation expectations formation mechanism into a microfounded Phillips curve model,simultaneously analyzing structural changes of inflation dynamics and inflation expectations formation mechanism.Using data from China over 2000-2019,we show that the driving force of business cycle on inflation remains stable during the sample period,therefore the Phillips curve has not been missing.Meanwhile,since 2010,the driving force of forward-looking expectation on inflation has weakened,reflecting the decreasing preference of firms for forward-looking pricing behaviors;The inflation expectations of households and professionals have been less rational and more anchored on official inflation targets.Our theoretical analysis based on a structured model indicates that the changes in pricing behaviors and inflation expectations formation mechanism can account for the weakening correlation between inflation and business cycle observed in data.