河北省碳排放驱动因素分析及碳减排路径研究

Analysis of Driving Factors of Carbon Emission and Study of Carbon Emission Reduction Path in Hebei Province

结合国内外碳排放影响因素的研究,在阐述可持续发展和低碳经济的理论基础上,分析河北省2011年以来能源消费量及消费结构。以Kaya恒等式为基础,并运用灰色关联分析法,对碳排放的影响因素与碳排放之间的关联程度进行分析。后以STIRPAT模型为基础,使用多元线性回归方法,对碳排放影响因素的九个指标进行分析。研究结果表明,能源消费和人口因素对河北省碳排放影响最大。最后,对河北省碳排放工作提出了针对性的建议。

Combined with the research on the influencing factors of carbon emissions at home and abroad,the energy consumption and consumption structure of Hebei Province since 2011 was analyzed on the basis of the theories of sustainable development and low-carbon economy.Based on Kaya identity and grey correlation analysis,the correlation degree between carbon emission and influencing factors was analyzed.Based on the STIRPAT model,nine indicators of influencing factors of carbon emission were analyzed by using multiple linear regression method.The research results indicate that energy consumption and population factors have the greatest impact on carbon emissions in Hebei Province.Finally,targeted suggestions were put forward for carbon emissions work in Hebei Province.