动态随机一般均衡理论的争议与回应——兼评国内学者的贡献

Doubts and Responses on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory:On the Contributions of Chinese Scholars

关于动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)方法,学术界存在着许多争议,一度造成跨领域学者对该模型的偏见。本文详细梳理并辨析了学术界对DSGE理论的质疑及其逻辑,明确其客观存在的不足并纠正对该理论框架的偏见,基本观点是:DSGE模型的主要作用在于分析宏观经济面对各种冲击时的反应机制,具体的预测并非其主要研究目的;尽管DSGE模型目前在模型识别、微观基础以及异质性分析方面仍存在着一定的缺陷,却仍然不失为一种分析宏观经济政策的合理工具;“小而精”模型往往不能完全取代DSGE模型在分析宏观经济运行机制所发挥的作用。对代表性争议进行回应后,本文总结了DSGE模型在我国的应用及国内学者的贡献,并展望了DSGE模型在未来的发展方向。

There are many disputes on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)which once caused bias among cross-disciplinary scholars.This paper combs the doubts on DSGE and the logic behind them in detail and responds to them one by one,discerning the objective disadvantages of and correcting the prejudices against this method.The basic viewpoints of this paper are as below:DSCE model plays a main role in analyzing the reaction mechanism of the macroeconomy to various shocks,rather than forecasting;DSGE model is still a reasonable tool for analyzing macroeconomic policies,though it has some defects in model recognition,micro basis,and heterogeneity analysis;the“small but precise”models cannot fully replace the role of DSGE model in understanding the operation mechanism of the macroeconomy.Finally,after summarizing the application of DSGE model in China and the contributions of Chinese scholars,we suggest the main direction of China's DSGE studies in the future.