碳水双重约束下产业结构优化与情景模拟

Industrial Structure Optimization and Scenario Simulation Under the Dual Constraints of Carbon and Water

产业结构优化是破解资源环境约束、推动经济社会可持续发展的重要途径。河南省是工业大省,在“双碳”目标和水资源刚性约束的背景下,如何通过产业结构优化提升水资源利用效率、推动碳减排是需要迫切解决的问题。采用河南省各行业水资源消耗和能源消耗等相关数据及最新的投入产出表数据,通过多目标规划方法设置三种情景,分析2030年产业结构调整对节水降碳目标的影响,并结合产业关联指标提出了未来产业结构优化调整的主要方向。研究发现,第一,2012—2017年河南省产业增加值和碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,用水量呈下降趋势。预测结果显示,2030年河南省产业总增加值为98 491.38亿元,碳排放量为2.04亿吨,用水量为137.08亿吨。第二,优化结果表明,产业结构积极调整情景(情景3)下2030年碳排放量下降8.33%,用水量下降16.72%,表明产业结构调整幅度增加能更有效地推动节水降碳双重目标的实现。在此基础上,从重点鼓励和抑制的行业方面提出了未来产业结构优化的方向。第三,未来应建立基于碳水约束目标的产业结构调整方案,对不同产业采取鼓励或抑制措施,推动企业清洁生产和节水改造,以节水降碳为目标推动产业结构转型。

Industrial structure optimization is an important way to break the constraints of resources and environment and promote the sustainable development of economy and society.Henan Province is a major industrial province.Under the background of the“Double Carbon”goal and the rigid constraint of water resources,how to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources and promote carbon emission reduction through industrial structure optimization is an urgent problem to be solved.Based on the data of water resource consumption and energy consumption in various industries in Henan Province,as well as the latest input-output table data,three scenarios were set up using multi-objective planning method to analyze the impact of industrial structure adjustment on water conservation and carbon reduction goals in 2030.Combined with industry related indicators,the main directions for optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure in the future were proposed.The results show that:Firstly,from 2012 to 2017,the industrial added value and carbon emissions in Henan Province showed an overall upward trend,and the water consumption showed a downward trend.The forecast results show that in 2030,the total industrial added value of Henan Province will be 9,849.138 billion yuan,carbon emissions will be 0.204 billion tons,and water consumption will be 13.708 billion tons.Secondly,the optimization results show that under the scenario of positive adjustment of industrial structure(scenario 3),the carbon emissions will decrease by 8.33%and the water consumption will decrease by 16.72%in 2030,indicating that the increase of industrial structure adjustment can more effectively promote the realization of the dual goals of water saving and carbon reduction.On this basis,the direction for optimizing the future industrial structure is proposed from the aspects of industries that are mainly encouraged and suppressed.Thirdly,it is suggested that in the future,the goal of carbon and water constraints should be established to deepen the adjustment of industrial structure,encourage or restrain different industries,promote clean production and water-saving transformation of enterprises,and promote the transformation of industrial structure with the goal of water saving and carbon reduction.