新冠肺炎疫情结束后中国游客对“一带一路”倡议60个参与国的出境旅游网络关注度时空特征

Analysis of the post-COVID-19 spatio-temporal characteristics of Chinese tourists’online attention to outbound tourism destinations in sixty participating countries along the Belt and Road

作为出境旅游大国,中国游客对境外旅游目的地的网络关注度变化为旅游管理机构在新冠肺炎疫情结束后制定旅游复苏策略提供了重要参考。本研究聚焦“一带一路”倡议60个参与国及其96个旅游目的地,采用百度指数来监测上述目的地的网络关注度时空变化,结合奇异值分解、小波分析及地理探测器,分析其关注度的动态变化特征及关联影响。研究发现如下:(1)在新冠肺炎疫情结束后,中国游客对研究区的网络关注度总体呈上升趋势,主要目的地国家以意大利、埃及、韩国、俄罗斯和希腊等为主。(2)网络关注度表现为3种时空特征:周期为7天的日常关注型、48天的长周期关注型和3天的突发性关注型。3种关注类型在目的地偏好上存在显著关联,长周期关注型对其他关注型的时空格局具有先导影响作用。(3)旅游网络关注度的时空特征分异不仅受到中国游客可支配时间的影响,还受到他们对国际旅游市场推广营销活动参与和响应程度的共同作用。目的地国家的公共卫生政策、经济复苏速度、旅游基础设施的可持续性及中外双边关系也影响了网络关注度的周期波动和地理分布。本研究深化了对新冠肺炎疫情结束后出境旅游网络关注度时空特征的理解,揭示了不同关注类型间的协同增强关系。上述发现为制定差异化的国际旅游合作策略提供了决策参考。

As a major outbound tourism country,the changes in Chinese tourists’online attention to overseas tourist destinations serve as a crucial reference for post-COVID-19 tourism recovery strategies.This study focuses on the 60 countries parcipating in the Belt and Road Initiative and their 96 tourist destinations.Employing Baidu Index for monitoring attention dynamics,coupled with Singular Value Decomposition,Wavelet Analysis,and Geodetector,we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics and associated impacts of the outbound tourism online attention.The findings are as follows:(1)At the post-COVID-19 stage,there is an overall increasing trend in Chinese tourists’attention towards destinations,particularly to countries like Italy,Egypt,South Korea,Russia,and Greece.(2)The online attention mainly exhibits three spatio-temporal patterns:routine attention with a 7-day cycle,long-period attention with a 48-day cycle,and short-term sudden attention with a 3-day cycle.These patterns significantly interact in shaping destination preferences,with long-term attention exerting a leading influence on the spatio-temporal patterns of other types.(3)The differentiation of spatio-temporal characteristics of tourism online attention is jointly influenced by the disposable time of Chinese tourists and their positive response to international tourism market promotions.Additionally,destination countries’public health policies,economic recovery pace,sustainability of tourism infrastructure,and Sino-foreign bilateral relations also impact the cyclical fluctuations and geographical distribution of online attention.This study deepens the understanding of post-COVID-19 outbound tourism online attention characteristics and reveals the synergistic enhancement relationships between different attention types.These insights provide data support for developing differentiated international tourism cooperation strategies,thereby facilitating the recovery of the tourism industry.