突发公共卫生事件对货币供应的冲击效应及治理应对——以新冠肺炎为例

Impact of Public Health Emergencies on Money Supply,Risk Transmission and Management Response——A Case Study of COVID-19

突发公共卫生事件所特有的传染性、破坏性与不确定性为社会经济发展带来了极大挑战,各国政府及货币当局纷纷出台相应的财政政策与货币政策,对冲其风险冲击。2020年年初“新型冠状病毒肺炎”疫情的快速蔓延更使得全球经济剧烈震荡,在此背景下,有效调整货币供给,防范化解系统性金融风险并保障经济平稳运行,已成为影响我国经济发展全局的重大问题。本文基于向量自回归模型,考察以新冠肺炎疫情为代表的突发公共卫生事件对货币供应方面的影响。在实证研究与理论分析的基础上,针对性的提出了相关建议,完善突发公共卫生事件的宏观治理应对机制与风险防范对策,促进经济发展和社会稳定。

The unique infectivity,destructiveness and uncertainty of public health emergencies have brought great challenges to social and economic development.The governments and monetary authorities have introduced corresponding fi scal and monetary policies to hedge the risk impact.The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic at the beginning of 2020 has made the global economy convulsion.In this context,how to effectively adjust money supply,prevent and resolve systemic financial risks,and ensure steady economic operation has become a major issue affecting our overall economic development.Therefore,based on the vector autoregressive model,this paper investigates the impact of public health emergencies represented by the novel coronavirus outbreak on money supply.Based on systematic empirical research and theoretical analysis,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions to improve the macro-governance and response mechanism of public health emergencies and risk prevention countermeasures,so as to promote economic development and social stability.