中国经济增长动力结构变迁:2000—2019

Evolution of Drivers of China's Economic Growth: 2000-2019

厘清中国经济增长的动力结构,培育和壮大发展新动能,对构建新发展格局至关重要。基于行业视角的增长核算框架对中国经济增长的动力结构分析发现,考察期内中国国内生产总值年均增速达8.99%,三次产业的增长贡献占比分别为4.63%、46.32%和49.05%,其中又以制造业和生产性服务业为主。从要素贡献视角看,资本、劳动和全要素生产率的增长贡献占比分别为60.52%、15.17%和24.31%,资本(尤其是传统资本)驱动型增长模式面临资本投入和资本贡献双重下降的挑战,劳动投入质量提升有望提高劳动要素的增长贡献。伴随着新旧动能转换和数字化转型的快速推进,资本要素中新型资本规模不断扩大,数字经济与新经济相关行业产出快速增长但TFP增长相对有限。以创新驱动高质量发展,实现新时代中国经济发展动力变革,应进一步挖掘资本与劳动要素的增长潜力,大力提升各行业全要素生产率,巩固深化制造业和生产性服务业融合发展,持续壮大新经济产业规模。

Since the reform and opening-up,the Chinese economy has continued to develop rapidly,becoming the world's second-largest economy and creating the world-renowned“Chinese miracle”.But in recent years,the Chinese economy has gradually entered a new normal of development,shifting from the past“extensive growth based on scale and speed”to“intensive growth based on quality and efficiency”.Clarifying the drivers of China's economic growth and cultivating and strengthening the new ones are crucial for fostering a new pattern of development.Based on the industrial framework of growth accounting,an analysis of the drivers of China's economic growth reveals that from 2000 to 2019,the average annual growth rate of China's GDP reached 8.99%,and the growth contributions of the three industries were 4.63%,46.32%and 49.05%,respectively,with manufacturing and productive services being the main drivers.From the perspective of factor contribution,the growth contributions of capital,labor,and total factor productivity(TFP)were 60.52%,15.17%,and 24.31%,respectively.The growth model driven by capital(especially traditional capital)was facing the challenge of a dual decline in capital input and capital contribution,and the improvement in labor input quality was expected to increase the contribution of labor factor growth.With the transformation of new and old driving forces and the rapid advancement of digitalization,the scale of new capital in capital factors continues to expand.The output of industries related to the digital economy and the new economy is growing rapidly,but their TFP growth is relatively limited.To drive high-quality development through innovation and achieve the transformation of driving forces for China's economic development in the new era,we should further tap into the growth potential of capital and labor factors,vigorously improve the TFP of various industries,consolidate and deepen the integration of manufacturing and productive services,and continue to expand the scale of new economic industries.The main contributions of this study lie in three aspects.Firstly,based on the international mainstream growth accounting theory,a top-down approach is used to control the total value of industry capital revenue and labor revenue,and then allocate them to various types of capital and heterogeneous labor in the industry,which helps to achieve coordination and unity between the growth accounting framework and national economic accounting.Secondly,by improving the data generation process of capital and labor input,a cross-classification matrix of“6 types of assets×19 industries”is constructed,along with a fourdimensional matrix including the employee's industry,gender,age,and education level,as well as a cross-classification matrix of labor working time and labor income matrix.The contribution differences and evolutionary trends of the quantity and quality of capital and labor input to China's economic growth are measured at the industry level.Thirdly,based on an industrial framework of growth accounting,this study examines the role of TFP in industry and economic development.From the perspectives of industry,factors and TFP,it systematically analyzes the characteristics and laws of the structural changes in drivers of China's economic growth,and deeply explores the role of the digital economy and new economic industries as the engine of China's economic growth in easing the downward pressure on the economy.This will help to adjust and optimize drivers of China's economic growth,providing theoretical support for China's high-quality development.China's economic and social development has entered a new stage,and the traditional model of relying on capital input and demographic dividend to promote high-speed economic growth is difficult to sustain.Innovation-driven high-quality development has become the theme of economic development in the new era.This study can provide theoretical support for stabilizing and improving China's economic growth level and achieving high-quality development.Therefore,the following suggestions are proposed.First,China should actively cultivate and strengthen the new driving forces for economic development;Second,the relevant departments should fully tap into the growth potential of capital and labor factors;Third,the relevant departments should attach great importance to and reasonably guide the development of the manufacturing industry;Forth,all industries especially the new economic industries should promote the TFP vigorously;Fifth,the allocation of industry resources should be further adjusted and optimized.