中国增值税区域间横向分配的经济效应:基于多区域CGE模型的分析

Economic Effects of Horizontal Distribution of Value-added Tax among Regions in China: Based on a Multi-regional CGE Model

基于生产地原则的增值税地区间分配方式造成地区间税收分配不公,加剧地区间税收竞争、过度投资和重复建设,不利于经济发展方式转变和新发展格局构建。本文建立了一个中国多区域可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),刻画了增值税在地方政府间的横向分配机制,对由生产地原则向消费地原则的分配机制改革进行了政策模拟。研究发现:增值税横向分配由生产地原则向消费地原则的改革会显著改善各地区人均增值税收入的不平衡,缩小各地区的财力差异;在完全消费地原则下,相对基准情景,总消费最高增长2.25%,GDP最高增长0.98%;上海等8个地区在四种增值税横向分配机制改革方案下GDP变化率为负,但湖南等大部分地区能从改革中受益,因此改革能促进总体经济增长。本文的研究为构建兼顾生产地和消费地贡献以及利益的地区间增值税横向分配制度提供了理论依据和政策参考。

Value-added tax(VAT)plays a pivotal role in the performance of government and economic development,and a good horizontal revenue distribution mechanism for VAT is conducive to transforming the mode and drivers of economic growth,and promoting the coordinated and balanced development of regional economy and equitable access to public services.At present,China's VAT revenues are distributed among local governments according to the origin principle,namely that the VAT revenue of transaction is submitted to the seller's tax authority,which will result in unfair distribution of tax revenues among regions and aggravate tax competition,over-investment and duplicated construction among regions.The destination principle,namely that the VAT revenue of transaction is submitted to the buyer's tax authority,can prompt local governments to change the economic growth mode that mainly relies on investment,and push to foster a new pattern of development that is focused on the domestic economy.Therefore,the research on the shift of the VAT horizontal distribution principle to the destination principle has important theoretical and policy significance.This study utilizes The 2017 China Multi-Regional Input-Output Table of 31 Provincial Units released by the Carbon Emission Accounts&Datasets and other national economic accounting information,constructs an inter-regional social accounting matrix and China's multi-regional CGE model,incorporates VAT and other taxes,introduces the VAT intergovernmental horizontal distribution formula and the adjustment coefficients of government expenditure structure,simulates the transformation of the VAT horizontal distribution principle from the complete origin principle to the complete destination principle,and evaluates the macroeconomic effect and the damage and benefit of each region.The results show that the reform will reduce the financial disparity among regions,lower income inequality,and increase the total social welfare;with the increase in the proportion of the application of the destination principle,the total consumption and GDP in China increase;a few regions have a negative rate of change of GDP under the four reform scenarios,and most of regions can benefit from the reform.This study offers the following policy implications.First,in the era of the digital economy,the current VAT distribution mechanism based on the origin principle makes the problem of tax shifting and unfair distribution of VAT horizontal inter-regional distribution increasingly serious,and the reform of the VAT horizontal distribution mechanism is conducive to the coordinated development of the region.Second,the reform of the VAT horizontal distribution mechanism is a key to promoting the transformation of government functions,expanding the demand for consumption and constructing a domestic economic cycle.Third,within the framework of VAT sharing between central and local governments,the VAT horizontal distribution scheme should be set up scientifically and reasonably based on the theoretical logic of VAT horizontal distribution and China's actual situation,to push forward the reform of the VAT horizontal distribution mechanism in an orderly manner.Fourth,with the implementation of the separation of VAT collection and distribution,and the method of distribution after collection,the reform of the VAT horizontal distribution mechanism can give full play to the advantages of the existing VAT collection and management mechanism and technology by maintaining the existing mode.This study makes the following three main contributions:first,it introduces a VAT system that is more in line with China's reality into a multi-regional CGE model and establishes a policy simulation framework for the VAT horizontal distribution mechanism;second,it simulates the effects of the gradual shift from the origin principle to the destination principle on major macroeconomic variables;third,it evaluates the heterogeneous effects of the reform program on major economic indicators in different regions.