2000—2022年我国林火主要致灾因素及扑救伤亡原因分析

Analysis of Dominant Causes and Rescue Casualties of Forest Fires in China from 2000 to 2022

为了解我国近20多年来林火主要致灾诱因以及伤亡原因,根据林火扑救伤亡事故案例以及2000—2022年相关气象因素(年平均气温、年平均降水量、年平均风速)的统计数据,采用统计分析与相关性分析等方法,分析林火主要致灾因素和扑救伤亡的主要原因。结果显示:1)2000—2022年,我国共计发生林火灾害134 671次。其中,2003—2010年是林火灾害的高发期,严峻的气候条件是这一时期林火事故的主要原因;2010—2020年的林火事故中,人为原因致灾占97%以上,广西、云南、贵州等农林结合密切地区的林火灾害事故较为频繁。2)典型林火扑救案例分析表明,由地理环境、可燃物情况、气象条件、林火行为等导致的直接伤亡事故占主导部分,由窒息、意外事故、扑火设备操作不当等非间接原因造成的伤亡也偶有发生。研究表明,我国林火灾害的致灾因素以气象因素和人为因素为主,火灾发生地恶劣的自然条件是引发伤亡的主要原因。分析林火主要致灾因素与扑救伤亡原因,可为火灾高效扑救、科学精准指挥提供参考。

In order to analyze the main causes of forest fires and casualties in China over the past 20 years,based on the case records of forest fire fighting casualties and statistical data on relevant meteorological factors(average temperature,average precipitation,average wind speed)from 2000 to 2022,statistical analysis and correlation analysis method were used to analyze the main causes of forest fire and the main causes of casualties in fire fighting.The results showed:1)From 2000 to 2022,a total of 134,671 forest fires occurred in China.Among these the period of high incidence of forest fires was from 2003 to 2010.Severe climatic conditions were the main cause of forest fires during that period.In the past 10 years,more than 97%of forest fires have been caused by humans.In regions such as Guangxi,Yunnan,and Guizhou where agriculture and forestry are closely integrated,forest fire accidents occur frequently.2)Analysis of typical forest fire fighting cases shows that the accidents resulting in direct casualties caused by geographical environment,combustible conditions,meteorological conditions and fire activities account for the dominant part,while the casualties caused by non-indirect causes such as asphyxia,accidents and improper operation of fire fighting equipment also occasionally occurred.The research shows that the main causes of forest fires in China are meteorological factors and human factors,with casualties primarily resulting from unfavorable natural conditions.The main causes of forest fires and the causes of casualties are elaborated to provide a reference for efficient firefighting,scientific and accurate command.