广东省铁路台风灾害风险评估

Typhoon Risk Assessment of the Railway in Guangdong Province

选取14个评估指标,对广东省铁路及沿线台风灾害风险进行评估,并利用地理探测器对其因子间的相互作用进行分析,以验证评估模型的可行性。结果表明:致灾力危险性最高的地区为粤西地区,发灾场敏感性、承灾体暴露性和承灾体抵抗力最高的地区主要分布在珠三角城市群。致灾力危险性是影响铁路台风灾害风险的首要因素,4个驱动因子两两相互作用,均大于单一因子对铁路台风风险指数的影响。从综合风险分析结果来看,粤西地区和珠三角地区是铁路台风灾害风险最高的区域,也是台风风险防范的重点地区。

In this paper,fourteen indexes were selected to assess the typhoon risk assessment of the railway in Guangdong Province,and then the interaction between the factors was analyzed by using geographical detector to verify the feasibility of the assessment model.As the results show,the area with highest risk for disaster-causing force is western Guangdong,while the area with the highest sensitivity of disaster occurring places,exposure of disaster body,and resistance of disaster body is the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration.The disaster-causing force is the primary factor influencing the typhoon risk assessment of the railway,and the interaction between the four driving factors exerts greater influence than any single factor on typhoon risk index of the railway.The comprehensive risk analysis results show that the highest typhoon risk areas of the railway are the west Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta,which are also the key areas for typhoon risk prevention.