城市韧性、科技创新与经济发展耦合关系演变分析--基于北京市的实证分析

Evolution of the Coupling Relationship among Urban Resilience,Technological Innovation and Economic Development:Taking Beijing City as the Example

为充分挖掘和发挥城市韧性、科技创新与经济发展三者之间的正向效应,分析了三者传导、驱动、阻碍、制约的作用机制,基于熵权法和耦合协调度模型构建了城市韧性、科技创新与经济发展耦合关系评价模型,并对北京市2009—2021年城市韧性、科技创新与经济发展耦合协调发展状况进行了实证评价。实证评价结果表明:北京市城市韧性、科技创新与经济发展之间存在耦合关系,三者变化指数、耦合关联度和耦合协调度总体呈现波动上升且趋于同步发展的趋势;同时,三者处于中度关联和临界协调状态,整体处于协调发展初期阶段,正在向深层次协调阶段发展。构建的评价模型能够为摸清城市韧性、科技创新与经济发展三者耦合协调发展状况提供思路和方法,评价结果能够为推进三者之间正向效应的发挥提供参考。

In order to fully play the positive effect among urban resilience,technological innovation,and economic development,the mechanism of transmission,driving,hindering,and constraining among the above three factors was analyzed.Then,the weight values of evaluation indicators are calculated by the entropy weight method,and the evaluation model for the coupling relationship among three factors was constructed based on the coupling coordination degree model.With the use of this model,the coupling and coordinated development of urban resilience,technological innovation,and economic development in Beijing from 2009 to 2021 was evaluated.As the results indicate,the coupling relationship exists among urban resilience,technological innovation,and economic development in Beijing,and the change index,the coupling correlation degree,and the coupling coordination degree of the three factors show an overall fluctuating upward trend and tend to develop synchronously.Furthermore,the coupling coordination degree of three factors is moderate correlation and in a state of critical coordination.So the overall coupling coordination degree of three factors in Beijing is in the early stage of coordinated development,moving towards a deeper level of coordination.The constructed evaluation model in this paper can provide ideas and methods for studying the coupling and coordinated development status of urban resilience,technological innovation,and economic development,and the evaluation results can provide reference for promoting the positive effects among the three factors.