太原市“十四五”规划大气污染防治政策的CO_(2)协同效益评估

Assessment of CO_(2) Co-benefits of Air Pollution Control Policies in Taiyuan's 14th Five-Year Plan

为量化评估太原市“十四五”大气污染防治政策的减污降碳协同效益,使用京津冀温室气体-空气污染相互作用与协同模型(GAINS-JJJ),模拟评估13项大气污染防治措施的减排潜力,CO_(2)的协同减排效益.2025年政策情景下一次PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(x)、VOCs和NH3分别减排1.8(5%,相对于基准情景减排比例,下同)、2.5(2%)、3.7(16%)、20.0(27%)、13.6(15%)和0.0 kt(0%),CO_(2)减排9.0 Mt(13%),CH_(4)排放增加203.3 kt(相对于基准情景增加25%).SO_(2)、NO_(x)与VOCs减排主要发生在电力、工业燃烧与溶剂使用部门,CO_(2)减排主要发生在工业燃烧部门,CH_(4)排放量增加是由于煤矿开采活动水平升高.限制“双高”行业的能源消耗,严禁新增产能以及可再生能源发电比例提升措施的CO_(2)协同减排效益最高.VOCs具有优异协同减碳效益.建议太原市进一步推进终端电气化政策,同时需加大提升电力行业清洁能源比重和可再生能源发电的消纳能力.

To quantitatively evaluate the co-benefits of air pollution reduction and carbon dioxide reduction of Taiyuan's 14th Five-Year Plan air pollution prevention and control policies,this study used the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interaction and Synergy Model(GAINS-JJJ)to simulate and evaluate the emission reduction potential and CO_(2) co-benefit of 13 air pollution control measures.The emission reductions of PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(x),VOCs,and NH_(3) in 2025 were 1.8(5%,compared with that in the baseline scenario),2.5(2%),3.7(16%),20.0(27%),13.6(15%),and 0.0 kt(0%),respectively.The reduction in CO_(2) emissions was 9.0 Mt(13%),whereas CH_(4) emissions increased by 203.3 kt(25%increase relative to that in the baseline scenario).SO_(2),NO_(x),and VOCs emission reductions derived from the power,industrial combustion,and solvent use sectors.CO_(2) reduction occurred mainly in the industrial combustion sector,and CH_(4) emission increased mainly due to the increase in coal mining activity.The highest synergistic CO_(2) reductions were achieved by restricting energy consumption in the high energy-consuming and high-emitting sectors;prohibiting new capacity in the steel,coke,cement,and flat glass industries;and replacing coal-fired power generation with renewable energy.Furthermore,the CO_(2) reduction co-benefit was highest for VOCs.In addition,this study suggests that promoting the policy of terminal electrification and simultaneously increasing the share of clean energy and the ability to consume renewable energy generation in the power sector are the keys to decreasing the emissions in Taiyuan.