经济政策不确定性与企业现金持有价值——有调节的中介效应

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Cash Holding Value:Moderated Mediating Effect

随着宏观环境波动,企业受经济政策不确定性影响较大,其对现金持有价值的影响以及渠道机制值得关注。基于沪深A股2013—2021年上市公司面板经验证据,对经济政策不确定性与企业现金持有价值的关系进行探讨,分析发现:经济政策不确定性对企业现金持有价值具有积极效应,经济政策不确定性通过加剧融资约束程度进而提高企业现金持有价值,在投资者保护度较低、非国有企业以及企业成长性较高时该正向促进作用更强,客户集中度在“经济政策不确定性—融资约束—企业现金持有价值”的整个路径和前半路径具有显著调节作用。由此,提出政府应考虑企业的风险承受能力、引导企业建立风险应对机制、促进资本市场改革、完善资金信用机制等政策建议。

With the fluctuation of macro environment,all aspects of enterprises are affected by economic policy uncertainty,and its impact on cash holding value and channel mechanism remain to be studied.Based on the empirical evidence of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2013 to 2021,this paper discusses the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate cash holding value,and finds that:Economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on the cash holding value of enterprises.Economic policy uncertainty increases the cash holding value of enterprises by aggravating the degree of financing constraints of enterprises,which has a stronger positive promotion when investor protection is low,non-state-owned enterprises and enterprises have a high growth rate.Customer concentration has a significant moderating effect on the whole path and the first half path of"economic policy uncertainty-financing constraint-corporate cash holding value".Therefore,the government should consider the risk tolerance of enterprises,guide enterprises to establish a risk response mechanism,promote the reform of capital market,improve the fund credit mechanism and other policy suggestions.