基于STIRPAT模型的江西省建筑业碳达峰时间预测研究

Prediction of carbon peak time of construction industry in Jiangxi Province based on STIRPAT model

在2005—2021年江西省建筑业碳排放量测算的基础上,基于可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估(STIRPAT)模型分析江西省建筑业碳排放影响因素,利用岭回归结合情景分析法预测江西省建筑业2022—2050年碳排放量,分析不同情景下建筑业碳达峰的时间与峰值。结果表明,江西省建筑业2005—2021年碳排放量中间接碳排放量占比远大于直接碳排放量;影响因素中能源结构为抑碳因子,其他因素均为促碳因子;预测显示基准和节能情景下江西省建筑业碳排放在2040年达到峰值,绿色发展情景于2030年达到峰值,碳排放量峰值也最小,粗放情景下无法判断是否达峰。

Based on the calculation of carbon emissions of construction industry in Jiangxi Province from 2005 to 2021,this paper analyzed the influencing factors of carbon emissions of construction industry in Jiangxi Province based on the stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology(STIRPAT)model and used ridge regression and scenario analysis to simulate carbon emissions of construction industry in Jiangxi Province from 2022 to 2050 to predict the time and peak of carbon peak in construction industry under different scenarios.The results showed that the indirect carbon emissions accounted for much more than the direct carbon emissions in construction industry in Jiangxi Province from 2005 to 2021.Among the influencing factors,energy structure was carbon-suppressing factor,and other factors were carbon-promoting factors.The prediction showed that the carbon emission of construction industry in Jiangxi Province would peak in 2040 under the baseline and energy-saving scenarios.The green development scenario would peak in 2030,with the minimum peak carbon emission.It was impossible to judge whether the peak occured under the extensive scenario.