中国与中亚国家跨境电商贸易潜力及创新模式研究

Research on the Potential and Innovation Model of Cross-border E-commerce Trade between China and Central Asian Countries

中亚五国地处丝绸之路经济带,是中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易增长最快的区域。近年来,伴随数字经济全球化,中国与中亚国家跨境电商贸易快速发展。科学测度各国跨境电商发展水平,找准有利因素,深入挖掘中国与中亚国家跨境电商贸易增长潜力,并且探索适宜的发展模式,对于促进贸易高质量发展和形成新发展格局意义重大。首先,本研究运用主成分分析法,从互联网通信技术水平、物流效率、通关效率和教育科研水平方面的十一项指标构建综合指标体系客观地评价中亚国家跨境电商发展水平,得出以下结论:在考察期内,中亚五国的跨境电商发展水平有提高的趋势,各国跨境电商发展水平也呈现出明显的差异,乌兹别克斯坦跨境电商发展水平名列中亚五国首位。其次,采用中国与中亚五国跨境电商贸易相关面板数据,运用拓展引力模型对中国与中亚国家跨境电商贸易影响因素及潜力进行量化评估,实证结果表明:在研究期内,经济发展水平、跨境电子商务发展水平、互联网应用以及对外开放水平等因素对中国与中亚五国跨境电商进出口贸易有显著促进效应,意味着随着经济增长,跨境电子商务发展水平提升,互联网应用更为广泛以及对外开放的层次和水平不断提高,中国对中亚国家跨境电商贸易潜力将不断释放。最后,基于拓展引力模型测度潜力值的大小,从“潜力再造型、潜力拓展型、潜力巨大型”对中国与中亚五国的跨境电商贸易潜力状态进行分类,从而分类施策,进一步挖掘跨境电商贸易潜力,积极探索跨境电商新模式,构建网络空间命运共同体和更加紧密的中国—中亚命运共同体。尤其,抢抓中国(新疆)自由贸易试验区建设契机,积极服务和融入新发展格局,以跨境电商驱动中国与中亚国家贸易高质量发展,有效支撑丝绸之路经济带建设,推进“一带一路”行稳致远。

The five Central Asian countries,located in the Silk Road Economic Belt,are the regions with the fastest trade growth between China and the countries along the the Belt and Road.In recent years,with the globalization of the digital economy,cross-border e-commerce trade between China and Central Asian countries has developed rapidly.Scientifically measuring the development level of cross-border e-commerce in various countries,identifying favorable factors,and deeply exploring the growth potential of cross-border e-commerce trade between China and Central Asian countries,as well as exploring suitable development models,is of great significance for promoting high-quality trade development and forming a new development pattern.First of all,the principal component analysis method was used to build a comprehensive indicator system to objectively evaluate the development level of cross-border e-commerce in Central Asian countries from eleven indicators in terms of Internet communication technology level,logistics efficiency,customs clearance efficiency and education and scientific research level.It was concluded that during the inspection period,the development level of cross-border e-commerce in the five Central Asian countries was on the rise,and the development level of cross-border e-commerce in various countries also showed significant differences.The conclusion is that Uzbekistan ranks first among the five Central Asian countries in terms of cross-border e-commerce development level.Furthermore,using the panel data related to cross-border e-commerce trade between China and the five Central Asian countries,this paper quantitatively evaluates the influencing factors and potential of cross-border e-commerce trade between China and the five Central Asian countries by using the expanded gravity model.The empirical results show that,in the sample period,the factors of economic development level,cross-border e-commerce development level,Internet application and opening up level have significant promoting effects on cross-border e-commerce import and export trade between China and the five Central Asian countries,It means that with the economic growth,the development cross-border e-commerce has been improved,the Internet application has been more extensive,and and level of opening up has been continuously improved,China's cross-border e-commerce trade potential with Central Asian countries will continue to release.Finally,based on the measurement of the potential value using the extended gravity model,the potential status of cross-border e-commerce trade between China and the five Central Asian countries is classified from"potential reshaping,potential expansion,and huge potential",in order to implement classified strategies,further explore the potential of cross-border e-commerce trade,actively explore new models of cross-border e-commerce,and build a community with a shared future in cyberspace and a closer China Central Asia community with a shared future.In particular,seize the opportunity of the construction of China(Xinjiang)Pilot Free Trade Zone,actively serve and integrate into the new development pattern,drive the high-quality development of trade between China and Central Asian countries with cross-border e-commerce,effectively support the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt,and promote the stability of the"the Belt and Road".