基于信息量、信息量-逻辑回归模型综合法的地质灾害易发性研究——以诸暨市马剑镇为例

Geological Hazard Susceptibility Study Based on Information Value and Information Value-Logistic Regression Model Integration Method--A Case Study of Majian Town,Zhuji City

为研究信息量模型综合法和信息量-逻辑回归模型综合法这2种方法在乡镇地质灾害风险评价中地质灾害易发性的可靠性,选取浙北诸暨市马剑镇为研究对象,通过运用定量化的数学统计原理,选取坡度、坡向、高差、坡型、覆盖层厚度、岩性与岩土结构、斜坡结构、与构造间距离和切坡高度9个影响因子,采用信息量模型和信息量-逻辑回归模型,结合沟谷泥石流易发性评价,对划定的斜坡单元进行综合评价。结果显示,这2种综合法均能相对客观、准确地评价地质灾害的易发性,AUC值分别为0.901和0.899,表明信息量模型综合法在合理性和准确度方面略高。该研究为相关乡镇的地质灾害风险调查评价提供了重要的技术支持。

For the study of the reliability of two methods,the Information Value Model Comprehensive Method and the Information Value-Logistic Regression Model Comprehensive Method,in the assessment of geological hazard susceptibility in rural towns,Majian Town in Zhuji City,north Zhejiang Province,was selected as the research subject.By applying quantitative mathematical and statistical principles,nine influencing factors were selected:slope,aspect,height difference,slope type,thickness of the covering layer,lithology and litho-structural characteristics,slope structure,distance to the fault,and slope height.The Information Value Model and the Information Value-Logistic Regression Model were used in conjunction with the assessment of the susceptibility to valley debris flow,to comprehensively assess the designated slope units.The results showed that both methods were able to assess the susceptibility of geological hazards relatively objectively and accurately,with AUC values of 0.901 and 0.899,respectively.This indicates that the Information Value Model Comprehensive Method performed slightly better in terms of rationality and accuracy.This study provides important technical support for the investigation and assessment of geological hazard risks in the related rural towns.