北江流域“2022·6·22”暴雨洪水分析

Analysis of rainstorm“2022·6·22”in the Beijiang River Basin

2022年6月19日,北江流域发生“2022年第2号洪水”,为1915年以来最大的洪水。为提高对北江流域暴雨洪水特性的认识,采用定性与定量相结合的方法对该场洪水的雨水工情进行研究。分析暴雨中心、洪水量级、洪水传播时间等特征,并与历史暴雨洪水进行对比。借助种子蔓延算法比较“理想凑泄”和“经验控泄”调度方案的调控效果,同时考虑水库动库容效应进行调洪演算。结果表明:造成本次洪水灾害的主要原因是累计雨量大、降雨强度大以及暴雨区域集中;根据“理想凑泄”规则调度飞来峡水库取得了显著效果,但需要考虑水库动库容的影响。研究成果可为北江流域防洪减灾以及制定调度规则等提供支持。

On June 19th,the Beijiang River Basin was afflicted by the“No.2 Flood in 2022”which is the largest flood in this basin since 1915.In order to understand the characteristics of rainstorm flood in the Beijiang River Basin,a comprehensive study was conducted using a combined qualitative and quantitative approach.The characteristics of rainstorm center,flood magnitude and flood propagation speed were analyzed and compared with historical rainstorm flood events.With the method of the seed spread algorithm,the regulation effects of“ideal drainage control”and“experience drainage control”scheduling schemes were compared.The study also took into account the dynamic reservoir storage capacity when simulating flood control scenarios.The results show that the main causes of the flood disaster included extensive cumulative rainfall,high-intensity precipitation,and the concentration of the storm’s impact area.It was observed that Feilaixia Reservoir had achieved remarkable results according to the“ideal drainage control”rule.However,it was highlighted that the influence of dynamic reservoir storage capacity must be considered in flood control operation.The research results can provide a technical support for the flood control,disaster mitigation and formulation of regulation rules in the Beijiang River Basin.